Syrskyi’s interview, Crimea blockade as negotiation leverage. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Rheinmetall announces construction of ammunition production plant in Ukraine

There is good news about ammunition for Ukraine. The German defense giant Rheinmetall officially announced that it received an order to build an ammunition production plant in Ukraine. It will be a joint venture where 51% of the shares will belong to the company, and the rest to the Ukrainian government. Rheinmetall will be responsible for the full technical equipment of the enterprise, its commissioning, and operational support. The time from the start of construction to the beginning of serial production of ammunition is 24 months. The estimated construction cost, as stated by a Rheinmetall representative, ranges in the three-digit millions of euros. The production volume of 155-mm caliber ammunition is not disclosed. However, it is estimated to be no less than 100,000 rounds per year. Currently, the optimal need of the Ukrainian Defense Forces for large-caliber artillery shells is over 200,000 per month.

It is also crucial to emphasize that the new plant is to produce not only shells but also propellant charges. In other words, the shell and charge are the end products, referred to as a complete round. This is extremely important because there is a significant shortage worldwide, particularly of explosives for shell filling and propellants for charges. This has significantly impacted the cost of artillery rounds, which has increased from €2,000 per round to nearly €5,000 since the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine.

We also know that besides the agreements with Rheinmetall, we have an agreement with the American company Northrop Grumman, which promises to build a plant in Ukraine for the production of medium-caliber ammunition, specifically 20-50 mm. Additionally, there are reports that a Czech company, part of the Colt CZ Group, will build a plant in Ukraine with a capacity of around 150-200 million cartridges per year.

The Guardian's major interview with Oleksandr Syrskyi

The Guardian published an interview with the Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, titled I know we will win - and how. This interview is unlikely to evoke jealousy from our higher military-political leadership, unlike the publications by General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. General Oleksandr Syrskyi announced several intriguing points, including an analysis of Russian forces. Syrskyi mentions that Russia currently has a significant advantage in forces and means, and has increased the number of troops and weapons involved in combat. The occupying forces now number 520,000 soldiers, with plans to increase to over 690,000 by late 2024—an increase of 170,000 military personnel by the end of this year.

In the interview, Syrskyi also discussed Russian equipment. Specifically, since 2022, the number of Russian tanks has increased from 1,700 to 3,500. The number of artillery systems has tripled, and the number of armored personnel carriers has significantly risen from 4,500 to nearly 9,000. According to Syrskyi, the ratio of equipment is three to one in favor of the enemy, making the supply of weapons from partners extremely important. The quality of the weapons received is also a critical issue.

Oleksandr Syrskyi also spoke about mobilization. He noted that without mobilization efforts, he cannot create new reserves and brigades that are necessary. As Russia increases its ground forces, it is crucial for all Ukrainian citizens to fulfill their duty to the state concerning the combat operations. Syrskyi stated that combat operations are being conducted over a stretch of 977 km, describing the Russian creeping advance as tactical rather than operational, which indeed aligns with reality. Syrskyi emphasized that Russia's advances come at a high human cost, with Russia's losses, in his estimation, being three times higher than Ukraine's, and even more in some directions. Syrskyi remarked he was not willing to “achieve goals at any cost”, or to chuck his men into “futile meat assaults.”

Another very interesting point he made is about Kyiv's plan to reclaim Crimea. Syrskyi says this is realistic. Of course, he emphasizes that this is a certain military secret but adds that "We will do everything we can to reach the internationally recognised borders of 1991."

Crimea is the center of gravity in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Director of the New Geopolitics Research Network and an expert at the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, Mykhailo Samus, said he found it very interesting to familiarize himself with the assessment of the current situation from the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to him, expert and analyst assessments of the current situation are close to what Oleksandr Syrskyi is saying, particularly regarding Crimea and the 1991 borders. Therefore, doubts and concerns that the higher military-political leadership does not consider offensive actions to liberate Ukraine's territories disappear after this interview. Especially concerning Crimea, which Samus believes is the center of gravity of this war, and General Syrskyi effectively confirmed this. In Samus's opinion, this interview has become a kind of benchmark for where Ukraine stands, which is crucial to understand. There is no reason to believe that Ukraine is no longer thinking about an offensive. This interview is quite optimistic.

Preconditions for the start of Russia-Ukraine negotiations

Mykhailo Samus believes that blocking occupied Crimea would be an excellent precondition for the start of negotiations. If we imagine a scenario where hostilities cease and negotiations between Russia and Ukraine begin through intermediaries, Moscow would be perceived as the stronger party. This perception would arise because the cessation of hostilities would have occurred during a Russian offensive. Samus emphasized that if Ukraine creates conditions for blocking Crimea, it wouldn't matter what is actually happening in the Donbas; all attention would immediately switch to the occupied peninsula. Even if Putin bluffs and pretends that Crimea is of no interest to him, the expert asserts that Putin understands Crimea is crucial in this war. If he begins to show signs of concern about what is happening in Crimea, then Trump would immediately sense it and realize that Putin will continue steps towards a blockade of Crimea.

Mykhailo Samus added that the recent strike on the port of Kavkaz and the destruction of the railway ferry indicate that strikes on Russian logistics and communications are ongoing. Additionally, strikes on Russian maritime communications will continue. The land corridor through Ukrainian territory remains, which could become a turning point in the situation at the front. However, this will depend on Ukraine's Western partners and the means it receives from them.

Trump's plan for settling the Russia-Ukraine war

Mykhailo Samus believes that the most sensitive point of Trump's program is the one about restoring peace in Europe, which mentions that Trump could somehow stop the war in Europe within a few hours or days. However, no concrete steps are outlined in this point. Therefore, according to Samus, it is necessary to start discussions with Republicans on this issue now. Ukraine should already be announcing its views on possible settlement or negotiations with Russia, specifically within what framework it could occur. Samus emphasized that the visit of Foreign Minister Kuleba to China yesterday should also be considered in this aspect. The aim to hold a second Peace Summit before the US presidential elections means that Ukraine plans to fully follow the track that can be considered the implementation of President Zelenskyy's Peace Formula. All this is needed to show Trump that the two Peace Summits have full support from numerous countries. Samus stressed that Ukraine must clearly prepare its position on the peaceful settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war.

US could draw Russia and China into new arms race

Mykhailo Samus explained that China is not bound by any nuclear armament conditions. According to him, Beijing has not signed any agreements and will be catching up with the US and Russia in the number of nuclear warheads. However, Trump's Iron Dome initiative could draw not only Russia into an arms race with the US but also China. According to Samus, the concept of the Great Iron Dome may not be realized, as it requires massive investments in mass production and the creation of missile defense systems that would cover the entire US territory. However, this may not be necessary, as the US territory can be protected with more targeted measures. Therefore, according to the expert, if the US begins to strengthen its air defense systems, Russia and China will do the same. Consequently, Russia and China will start investing in air defense systems, which will undermine their economies. Trump wants to weaken the Russian economy through low oil prices and the Chinese economy through a direct trade war. Under these conditions, according to Samus, combined with the arms race, the economies of Moscow and Beijing will face serious threats.