Strange intrigue surrounds possible supply of Swedish Gripens to Ukraine. Serhiy Zgurets' column

The intrigue around the aupply of Gripen aircraft to Ukraine

A strange intrigue is unfolding around the possible supply of Swedish fourth-generation Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine. Recently, Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström announced that all activities have been suspended at the request of the Ukrainian side. This decision was made because it is difficult to have two fighter jet systems - F-16 and Gripen - at the same time, as it requires too much effort. 

Now the experts are stumped by the statement of Ihor Zhovkva, Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office. He said that he had never heard that Ukraine was refusing Gripen fighters, but rather that the President of Ukraine was constantly raising this topic with the Swedish leadership.

Earlier, the Swedish Ministry of Defense announced the possible transfer of about 16-18 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine. Then this topic went off the news radar. But later, Sweden took a bold step and decided to give Ukraine 2 ASC 890 long-range radar detection aircraft based on Saab aircraft, which significantly strengthen the Ukrainian Air Force and are much more powerful than Gripen.

As for the Gripen, we can say that Kyiv and Stockholm are ready to talk about the possible transfer of these aircraft, but on the other hand, the question is whether it is advisable to disperse efforts and capabilities. Because we know that on the eve of the NATO summit, Ukraine announced its desire to receive 128 F-16 fighters. Ideally, by the end of the year, Ukraine will have received up to 20 aircraft. However, we know that it has 20 pilots trained so far. And it is the personnel, technical and maintenance issues that are key to expanding the F-16 fleet. 

These are the same issues that apply to the Gripen. It seems irrational to push two types of aircraft at the same time. Most likely, this will be done sequentially, which would be quite logical.

But this logic is violated by the statement by the French ambassador to Ukraine, who said that France is still clearly on track to provide Ukraine with Mirage 2000 aircraft. There are 27 of these aircraft in France, not all of them in good condition, but the French ambassador said that Paris is speeding up the transfer of Mirage 2000 to Kyiv, and this could happen within a few months. But we know what problems there were with the motley fleet of armored vehicles for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And now this story is repeated with aircarft, which are a much more expensive type of weapon. Of course, concentrating on F-16s would have been a more logical and more correct step, but time will tell who was right in this story.

Syrskyi is going to visit the 59th Mechanized Brigade

And then we'll talk about why Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi is going to visit the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade. The fact is that we have seen a number of statements from former military and volunteers that the command of this brigade is acting in such a way that the brigade is suffering significant losses on the contact line. The 59th Brigade is defending Krasnohorivka. And Syrskyi has decided that he will personally visit the area of responsibility of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade. A commission with the head of the military law enforcement service will also work there. 

What is worth noting? It seems that a trend is growing whereby public pressure can be used to influence the change of command of military units, as if it were public control. But it would have been much better if the selection of personnel for certain positions had taken place earlier and had been of sufficiently high quality to avoid situations like we are currently facing with the 59th Brigade. However, any conclusions are premature until the commission completes its work.

However, if we put together the various data, at least 7 brigade commanders have been replaced in a short period of time. I hope that not all of them were made due to public pressure. However, the need to select commanders who can really ensure that combat operations are conducted with a view to destroying the maximum number of enemies and ensuring the safety of personnel is a challenge that every commander faces today in conditions where the Russian enemy has a superiority in numbers on the front line.

The situation at the front

Let's talk about the frontline. First of all, about the most intense area - Pokrovsk. If you look at the reports of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' General Staff, almost half of the combat clashes take place in this area. There are several areas where Russia is trying to advance.

By the way, the press service of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade Mahura showed a video of the soldiers of the Shkval special battalion proving their effectiveness on the battlefield. Why is there so much attention focused on this video? Because the Shkval battalion consists of citizens who have served their sentences in prison and is formed of volunteers who have decided to defend their country. 

This video shows how quickly the soldiers mastered the equipment. They are using Bradley infantry fighting vehicles to clear areas where Russia tried to hold it. This battalion operates separately within the brigade. However, in some brigades, such as the 3rd Assault Brigade, former prisoners will fight alongside soldiers from other battalions, i.e. in the same ranks. We see that the potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is being strengthened by various options, and this way is quite effective.

Oleksandr Shyrshyn, a soldier with the 47th separate mechanized brigade Mahura from the Pokrovsk direction, noted that in recent weeks there have been no changes in the tactics of Russian forces, they continue to advance with infantry, mostly in large numbers. Russia is also using artillery and FPV drones, which means its pressure is not decreasing. Usually, there are several adversary assaults per day, and in between, Russian artillery strikes Ukrainian positions with high intensity.

Russia is trying to look for control points, concentrations of equipment and military, and accordingly uses KABs, which are launched 3-4 times a day, maybe a little more. Russian troops use large numbers of reconnaissance UAVs, Ukraine's army has some things that work against the Lancets, and it is possible to implement certain tricks.

The serviceman added that as for the number of FPV drones used on both sides, the usage is approximately the same. But there are nuances, because Russia is constantly re-equipping these drones, changing frequencies. From time to time, there is a threat to Ukraine's rear when a Russian FPV drone flies in at night or during the day. This suggests that Ukraine's side has problems with electronic warfare and with solving this issue in general. Locally, it is looking for solutions, trying to work around something, test something, but it doesn't have a global strategic solution at the level of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. As long as Ukraine does not have this solution, it will suffer certain losses.

Shyrshyn said that there is a team that is recruiting for the brigade, conducting interviews and certain activities to attract people. However, the result will not be seen so quickly, because people have to be selected, trained, then get into the unit, undergo deployment - the whole process takes time. As for specialists, there are many positions the brigade needs people to fill. The most important is infantry, as well as Bradley crews, ATGM operators, machine gunners, so there are enough positions. The main thing is that people should have a desire to serve and defend the country, and there will be a place for them 100%.