Russia's capabilities fall short of stated ambitions

If Russia truly had the strength for a long war, it wouldn’t be launching massive airstrikes on Ukraine’s rear. Instead, it would slowly grind down our forces through a sluggish war along the front line, without pushing too hard for territorial gains.

"If they had the stamina, they would be wearing down our troops there — while doing everything possible to make the Ukrainian rear forget about the war and slip back into the rhythm of everyday peacetime life."

Over time, the gap between the front and the rear would grow into a deep chasm. A country like that is far easier to destabilize from within. That would be the ideal scenario for Russia.

But here’s the catch: to pull off that strategy, you need time — and more importantly, resources. Russia has neither. That’s why they’re hammering civilian cities with drones and missiles, why they try to scare us — and the world — with their “wonder weapons” and whatever else. They’re doing it because they’re stretched to the limit.

Behind a long list of problems, things are starting to burn from within. They’re rushing, trying to force momentum — not to defeat Ukraine faster, but to keep things from falling apart inside Russia itself. If they had real staying power, they wouldn’t be scrambling like this.

And then there’s their core problem: their capabilities simply don’t match their ambitions. The longer this drags on, the clearer that truth will become — even for Russians themselves.

The enemy is pressing on, but it’s doing so with great strain — and with a very real fear of the nasty surprises that today’s reality could unleash inside Russia at any moment.

Source

About the author: Mykhailo Basarab, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.