Russia terrorizes civilians but lacks power to seize major Ukrainian cities — expert

Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko shared his analysis, Obozrevatel reports.

First, it is necessary to determine whether there is a threat of a Russian offensive in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv regions, with a risk of capturing the regional capitals.

As of now, three Russian groupings from the North military formation are positioned along the border with these regions: Sumy direction (50,000–60,000 troops), Kharkiv direction (50,000 troops), Chernihiv direction (12,000 troops).

In addition, around 130,000 Russian troops near Pokrovsk and the 58th Army in the Zaporizhzhia sector lack the strength to seize major cities. Their actions remain tactical, focused on local battles near Huliaipole and attempts to advance toward Pokrovsk along the N-15 route.

“The Russians currently lack the forces and resources to launch any offensive aimed at occupying an entire region or a major regional center. The available Russian forces are only sufficient for a slow, creeping advance on individual sectors, not for simultaneous large-scale assaults,” Kovalenko explained.

Do Russian forces have the capability to render these cities uninhabitable?

Fears that Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, and even, oddly enough, Dnipro could become uninhabitable cities are now voiced with growing volume and panic.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Kharkiv has endured bombings, artillery strikes, blackouts, and water shortages yet remains under constant attack, raising questions about its habitability. Similarly, Kherson faces regular shelling, air strikes, and FPV drones targeting civilians, putting its livability in doubt.

“A city’s habitability is a subjective judgment. For some, two or three days without electricity is enough to leave, while others stayed in their homes without power, water, or heat even as fighting raged nearby. Everyone forms their own assessment of a city’s livability, but it is certain that the Russians will strike energy infrastructure, attempting to leave us without light, heat, and water ahead of winter,” the military analyst noted.

Moreover, recent strikes indicate that Russia aims to create a food crisis in certain regions, targeting a farm in Kharkiv region that killed enough pigs to supply meat for a month, and previously hitting grain storage in Odesa region. Russia seeks not only to plunge Ukraine into darkness and cold but also to trigger shortages ahead of winter, when demand for essential goods rises.

“So, everyone defines for themselves what makes a city livable and when evacuation is necessary, as what feels like a normal morning for a Ukrainian can seem like the end of the world to a European,” Kovalenko concluded.