Russia prepares for major summer offensive in Ukraine, keeps diplomatic 'Plan B' ready

Oleksandr Kovalenko, military observer with the Information Resistance group, stated this, Obozrevatel reports.

As the summer of 2025 approaches, Russian forces are preparing for an ambitious new offensive in Ukraine, with the primary goal of breaking through to major cities before the onset of autumn rains and winter cold. Despite ongoing discussions about a possible ceasefire—largely promoted by Western partners—Moscow continues to show little genuine interest in meaningful negotiations, instead simulating diplomatic activity as a backup plan.

Russian military planners have set their sights on capturing strategic cities such as Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, as well as establishing strongholds in the Kupiansk and Lyman directions. The overarching objective is to initiate urban combat in these areas by fall and winter, leveraging Russia’s numerical advantage in troops, even as its armored vehicle reserves dwindle. 

In the south, intensified fighting in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions is expected, not necessarily to seize these territories, but to tie down Ukrainian forces and divert attention.

However, the Russian army is more exhausted than ever, relying increasingly on civilian vehicles and drones due to shortages of tanks and armored personnel carriers. The urgency to reach urban centers before the weather turns is driven by the limitations of Russia’s current military capabilities, especially for operations involving motorcycles and light vehicles.

In the event that the summer offensive fails to achieve its objectives, Russia is expected to pivot to its diplomatic “Plan B.” By maintaining the image of negotiation readiness, Moscow aims to propose a ceasefire, buying time to replenish its forces and equipment over the winter, and potentially preparing for an even more intense campaign in 2026.

This dual-track strategy echoes the events of 2022, when Russia launched a similar diplomatic initiative in Istanbul while continuing its military operations. 

Then, as now, Russia’s demands were unacceptable to Kyiv, and the subsequent overextension of Russian forces led to significant territorial losses.

With both military and diplomatic strategies in play, Russia appears to be preparing for two possible outcomes in 2025: a breakthrough on the battlefield or a temporary pause to regroup. 

Either way, hopes for a genuine peace remain distant, as Moscow’s actions suggest preparation for continued conflict rather than resolution.