Russia redeploys dozens of Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS bombers between airbases to mislead Ukrainian intelligence

In this context, satellite imagery analyzed by Defense Express, based on open-source data from the AviVector Twitter account, offers a revealing look at recent Russian bomber activity.

According to Defense Express, satellite images dated May 26, 2025, show that 40 Tu-22M3 bombers, 11 Tu-95MS bombers—representing around 20% of Russia’s entire Tu-95MS fleet—and five An-12 aircraft were simultaneously stationed at Olenya airbase. (The An-12s may belong either to Russia’s transport or naval aviation forces.)

This sudden concentration of Tu-22M3 bombers at Olenya contrasts sharply with imagery from mid-May, when 42 aircraft of the same type were located at Belaya airbase in Siberia. Considering that Russia operates no more than 60 Tu-22M3s overall, it appears that two-thirds of its fleet were transferred from Belaya back to Olenya within a two-week period—a move that seems paradoxical, especially given the limited current use of these aircraft in strikes against Ukraine, compared to the intensity of operations in 2023 and 2024.

Even more telling, of the 11 Tu-95MS bombers visible at Olenya on May 26, only three were involved in that day’s missile strike on Ukraine. As Defense Express notes, this may reflect a deeper issue: the gap between aircraft availability and actual operational readiness within Russia’s long-range aviation fleet.

Imagery from Engels airbase, also analyzed by Defense Express, paints a similarly dynamic picture. 

As of May 25, there were six Tu-95MS, three Tu-160, and four Su-34 aircraft visible. But just one day later, only three Tu-95MS, three Tu-160s, and two Su-34s remained. After Russia carried out another large-scale missile strike on May 26, seven Tu-95MS bombers landed at Engels, while another Tu-95MS was redeployed to Olenya.

According to Defense Express, these movements suggest that Russia is intentionally rotating its bombers between airfields to complicate surveillance efforts by Ukrainian and Western intelligence. The goal: to make it more difficult to detect the timing and scale of imminent missile strikes.

However, such tactics are not without cost. These continuous relocations are likely accelerating wear on aging aircraft and depleting limited flight-hour reserves for key bombers like the Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3, and Tu-160—a strategic trade-off that may eventually strain the Kremlin’s long-range strike capability.

• Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber was recently destroyed by a Ukrainian drone. Meanwhile, Russian sources claimed the aircraft crashed due to an alleged technical malfunction.