Russia might launch armed or diplomatic moves in Suwalki region, says Ukrainian diplomat

This view was expressed by Dmytro Dovhopolyi, candidate of historical sciences and former UN Secretariat employee (1987–2019), during an interview on Espreso TV.

“From Russia’s side, as the aggressor, I would expect some form of action. I would look towards the so-called Suwalki Corridor — the corridor connecting Russia with Königsberg (now known as Kaliningrad - ed.). I would anticipate either some armed provocations or diplomatic demarches there, there's a particular likelihood of provocations in the Suwalki area. Especially given the Belarus connection,” he stated.

Dmytro Dovhopolyi also pointed to the upcoming Zapad 2025 exercises scheduled between Russia and Belarus in September, should provocations in the Suwalki area not occur.

“If nothing happens beforehand, there is various information about the Zapad 2025 exercises. Officially, Russia has announced 12,000 to 15,000 participants, but Estonian intelligence estimates between 50,000 and 100,000. If those higher numbers are accurate, it represents a very dangerous concentration near the Ukrainian border and also presents an opportunity for provocations. As for Ukraine, it has surprised the world more than once — with the Moskva cruiser and with drone operations. I believe both Malyuk and Budanov (heads of Ukraine’s Security Service and Defense Intelligence respectively - ed.) have plans up their sleeves that will catch us by surprise,” the diplomat said.

• On March 30, the defense ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania voiced concerns that a potential ceasefire in Ukraine could heighten the security threat to their countries. They warned that Russia might use this period to rearm and redeploy its forces along NATO’s northeastern flank.