Russia eyed Chernihiv as potential offensive axis alongside Sumy, Kharkiv

Ivan Tymochko, head of the Reserve Council of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, said this on Espreso TV.

“When we talk about the Sumy and Kharkiv directions, we must also include the Chernihiv direction, as Russia potentially considered it for an offensive. The Chernihiv direction falls under the jurisdiction of the Russian 'Sever' (North) group of forces, which totals about 130-150 thousand personnel. This group is divided into the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk formations. The Kursk and Belgorod groups have 50-60 thousand Russian soldiers, with the rest in the Bryansk formation. We understand that there can be no activity on the Chernihiv direction because there are only 10-12 thousand troops there, which is definitely not enough personnel to launch an attack,” noted Ivan Tymoсhko.

Regarding the Sumy and Kharkiv directions, Russian forces are spread over approximately 500 km. So, the Russian grouping of about 100,000 troops is enough to conduct some local operations. However, these forces are definitely insufficient to carry out a rapid breakthrough at the operational or strategic depth. 

For comparison, the Russians deployed 100-120 thousand troops in the offensive on the Lyman-Kupiansk direction. And to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the Kursk region along a 50 km front line, the Russians concentrated 60,000 of their soldiers and 15,000 North Koreans.

“If we assess the current situation today, we can see that Russian troops are conducting their operation with the forces I’ve described. However, the question of reserves remains. It was previously reported that Russia mobilizes around 35,000 to 40,000 troops per month. That’s the resource Russia can replenish monthly. 

Also, there are about 650,000 Russian troops currently in Ukraine, which is a significant military force under modern conditions. But this does not represent a sharp increase in Russia’s strength, even compared to 2024. So, to say this could be a large-scale Russian offensive, as it has been publicly and widely announced in the media, there’s no need to panic,” concluded the Head of the Reservist Council of Ukraine’s Ground Forces.

• Russia is creating extra tension along the Ukrainian border to force the Ukrainian Defense Forces to move reserves away from other fronts.
• On May 29, Head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration, Oleh Hryhorov, reported that the situation on the frontline is shifting, and the Russians are trying to gain a foothold in border villages.
• Russia's advance in Bilovody and Loknya in the Sumy region is not the end, and Russian activity is intensifying every day. Constant pressure from the infantry is taking its toll, and previous successes are motivating the Russians to build on them.