Russia may attack Poland or Lithuania if hostilities in Ukraine cease

Bild reported the infromaion, citing its own sources.

The article states that Western intelligence fears that if a ceasefire is established in Ukraine, Russia could move its troops to the borders of Finland, Norway, and the Baltic countries, and closer to Poland.

A source tells the publication that Moscow has prepared military infrastructure in recent months and already has plans in place but has been unable to implement them due to the war in Ukraine.

The source claims that if peace is achieved in Ukraine in the coming months, Russia will send its forces to Belarus within the framework of the Zapad 2025 exercises, which may have catastrophic consequences similar to those in 2021 when Russia used military maneuvers in Belarus as a pretext to invade Ukraine.

"This time, the targets may be Lithuania or Poland," the source says.

"Of course, we all want peace in Ukraine. But we must also be honest: if the war continues, Zapad-2025 will remain a maneuver, as the decisive forces are elsewhere. If this ends on Russia's terms, Zapad may begin a new war against us," the source adds.

At the same time, another Western official says that the Kremlin sees "weakness as an opportunity for further conquests." If dictator Vladimir Putin receives the signal that he can retain temporarily occupied territories, he "will look for the next, more important task."

• On October 23, 2024, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced joint exercises with Russia under the name Zapad 2025. On April 4, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated that NATO is prepared to respond to the joint Russian-Belarusian exercises.
• Meanwhile, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, believes that large-scale military exercises in Belarus involving Russian troops, scheduled for this fall, could be a preparation for a new offensive against Ukraine.
• At the end of April, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the Russians "are preparing something" in Belarus this summer under the cover of military exercises.