Putin talks succession for first time — “common dictator trick”, says political expert

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"Indeed, on May 4, Putin talked about his successor for the first time in his political career. But he did it in a traditional way — saying he’s always thinking about a successor and that several candidates might be picked, with some sort of 'casting' between them. In plain language: 'I’m not stepping down, but I’m starting a process to test the loyalty of the elites.' Of course, once Putin mentions a successor, some movement within the elites begins. And the fact that he mentioned multiple candidates means this process will be long and drawn out. We shouldn’t expect to see a clear successor anytime soon," said Vadym Denysenko.

He said that other dictators have used similar tricks. A classic example is Stalin, who once claimed he was tired and wanted to resign. Then, at a Central Committee meeting, everyone rushed to convince him to stay. Mao did something similar — he named three successors, two of whom were executed and one sent to an equivalent of USSR’s Siberia camps. So, in reality, there's no real talk of a successor.

“These are purely political games tied to two main things,” the political expert explained. “On one hand, despite the Russian people's lack of agency, about 60% of the population, according to polls, are afraid of what will happen if Putin dies. Over 30% believe a successor already exists, but isn't being shown yet because it's too soon. But what really worries Putin is that the elites have started thinking in terms of a power transition — and that means a major redistribution of wealth. Just to give you an idea, in 2024 alone, property worth 2.5 trillion rubles, or about $250 billion, was reprivatized in Russia.”

The journalist added that most of this wealth is concentrated in the hands of seven families: Chemezov (Rostec), Patrushev (mainly agricultural assets), Kiriyenko (who oversees Rosatom and is also deputy head of the presidential administration), Sechin (Rosneft), the Rotenberg brothers, the Kovalchuk brothers, and Kadyrov — although Kadyrov is more of a conditional case, since he last received assets from reprivatization back in 2023.

“The logic of a power transition has already been set in motion. This shows that Putin is becoming increasingly paranoid, which is why he’s starting this process of testing the loyalty of those around him,” Denysenko said. “Until now, the topic of a successor wasn’t just taboo — it was completely off-limits. Anyone who brought it up faced serious political repression. So the fact that Putin is now speaking about it openly suggests that his paranoia is getting worse.”

• On May 2, CNN reported that Russian leader Vladimir Putin may have shifted his immediate focus in the war in Ukraine to shorter-term goals, including strengthening his hold on occupied territories and boosting the country’s struggling economy.