Putin’s war goals in Ukraine appear to shift, intelligence sources say

CNN reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter, that U.S. and Western officials have reviewed new intelligence showing this shift.

Recent intelligence assessments from the U.S. and its allies indicate that Putin views the current state of the war as favorable, believing he has the momentum and manpower to wage a prolonged conflict and eventually take control of all of Ukraine.

According to two U.S. sources, the perception that Putin has shifted his stance has benefited U.S. President Donald Trump and his negotiators, who believe the Russian leader may now be more open to a peace deal.

At the same time, senior U.S. officials remain skeptical of Putin and his repeated claims about seeking peace. Many believe that even if Russia agrees to a deal, it may eventually resume the war and try to seize more of Ukraine.

“I think that he may be thinking - I don’t want to say thinking smaller - but thinking about what a reasonable nearer-term objective is. All of this really depends on what is the US willing to put on the table so that he could not just claim victory domestically, but really feel that he has achieved something that is worth a significant pause and then maybe retake up the fight at some point later,” said a senior Western intelligence official. 

The official pointed to Putin's repeated references to the historical origins of the Russian people and said he still holds a “long-term objective” of taking over most of Ukraine, “at least those portions that are the cradle of Russian civilization.”

A European official agreed that Moscow appears willing to “play along” with the U.S. and scale back its immediate objectives to improve relations with Washington, but emphasized that Russia has “clearly hasn’t given up on their maximalist war ends.”

The Kremlin hopes that an improved relationship “draws the attention away after a tactical pause and that they can then use the mix of military, economic, informational and political tools to achieve Putin’s full objectives in Ukraine and beyond,” the official said.

According to one source, earlier this year, U.S. intelligence officials warned Trump's advisers that control of Ukraine remains Putin's top priority after the regime remains in place, and warned that he is eager to take advantage of any haste in the new administration's negotiations.

“Putin’s thinking has evolved because he thinks he has a sympathetic US president who doesn’t know what he’s doing and is more interested in short-term wins,” Democratic Congressman Jason Crow, who sits on the House intelligence committee. 

He added that Putin “thinks there can be a settlement, and it simply won’t be enforced.”

Read also: Trump says Putin “wants to stop war,” but won’t say if he trusts him

At the same time, a senior U.S. official noted that Russia's goal is to get as much of the occupied territory recognized as possible and to have “as weak of a Ukraine as possible.” At the same time, there are no signs that Putin will actually be able to conquer the rest of Ukraine when his troops have not had significant breakthroughs on the front for a long time.

• On April 26, U.S. President Donald Trump, after a personal conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the funeral of Pope Francis, issued a statement sharply criticizing Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin.