Peace treaty with Russia will never be signed

Here’s a summary of the main takeaways:

1. The word “ceasefire” disappeared from discussions after Alaska.

 President Trump had personally sought a ceasefire with Putin as the first step. His plan was to halt the killings and then move on to a comprehensive peace treaty, addressing the root causes of the conflict and other Kremlin priorities. The seriousness of this approach was underlined by planned punitive tariffs on India over Russian oil, which were contingent on Putin agreeing to a ceasefire. In the end, the US removed the ceasefire from the agenda but did not cancel the tariffs, something India highlighted with Modi’s visit to China.

2. A peace treaty with Russia will never be signed.

Moscow’s position remains unchanged: a treaty is possible only after a Russian victory. Putin has maintained this stance since 2022 and reiterated it several times this week. 

The so-called “root causes” Moscow cites are less about Ukrainian territory and more about reshaping the global security architecture. Discussions over spheres of influence could last decades, and without a ceasefire, Putin will continue the killings indefinitely. Clearly, this is not a path to ending the war—it’s a justification for its endless continuation. Sooner or later, talks about a ceasefire will have to resume.

3. The fact that security guarantees are being discussed in both the EU and the U.S. is positive.

However, there is still too little reliable information to draw conclusions about the specifics. One thing is certain: Ukraine’s security guarantees cannot depend on “Russia’s approval.” Since 2022, Putin has repeatedly said he has no objection in principle—but only under conditions that give Russia veto power over aid and prevent NATO troops from being on Ukrainian soil. Hopefully, the US, EU, and other allies understand these realities and have a plan to counter Kremlin threats that Coalition forces in Ukraine “would be legitimate targets.”

4. Europe has finally become more active.

There are many positive developments. While time was lost since 2022, the current momentum is far better than before. Recently, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz equated Ukraine’s security with Germany’s own security—apparently the first time a Western European leader has explicitly recognized the inseparability of their country’s security from Ukraine’s.

For Ukraine, three things remain crucial: weapons supplies, economic support, and backing for its army. 

Europeans are already providing substantial aid in arms and funding. Soon, they are likely to formally recognize the Ukrainian army as the foundation of a unified European force, fully staffed and maintained through European budgets—an outcome for which there may be no practical alternative.

Source

About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.