Ceasefire in Ukraine 'highly unlikely' without China — analyst

Political scientist Vadym Denysenko said this on Espreso TV.

“The Russian Federation has been steadily trying over the past few months to position itself as a mediator in negotiations between the U.S. and China. They won’t succeed—neither China nor the U.S. need intermediaries. What Russia is already managing, however, is to bargain over the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic shelf between the U.S. and China. They have already succeeded in pushing the Ukraine issue to the background while emphasizing the Arctic shelf in U.S.-China talks,” Denysenko explained.

According to the political scientist, disagreements between the U.S. and Europe will significantly impact peace negotiations over the war in Ukraine.

“If we talk about the short-term perspective, there is no question of peace. Merz is partially correct that disagreements between Europe and the U.S. will significantly affect this matter,” he added.

Denysenko emphasized that China is primarily interested in trade with Russia, not in supporting Putin. After all, many of the goods China sells to Russia are also exported to Ukraine.

“If we talk about the medium-term perspective, the key to peace will largely depend on negotiations between the U.S. and China. Within these talks, additional negotiations could arise involving the U.S., EU, China, Ukraine, and Russia. However, it’s important to emphasize that without China, the likelihood of a ceasefire is very low. It should also be noted that China does not support Russia - they trade with them. China sells Russia the same goods it sells to Ukraine. So when we say China is selling something to Russia, much of those goods are also purchased by Ukraine. Over 80% of Ukraine’s imports from China consist of drones,” the political scientist emphasized.

• Chinese President Xi Jinping met Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Beijing on Tuesday, September 2, and said both countries should promote deeper integration of their interests.