Ukraine shouldn’t rush into Black Sea ceasefire, expert says ahead of April talks

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

“Turkey itself has taken the initiative to act as a platform for negotiations on Black Sea security, which directly concerns them, as they are bordered by four seas at least. They proposed this platform. There will be Russian and Ukrainian delegations. I don’t know if they will speak directly with Turkey’s mediation or if they will communicate through Turkey, as was the case in Saudi Arabia, not in one room but in separate rooms, with the Turks ensuring the negotiations. However, there will be representatives from other countries, which haven’t been disclosed yet. Possibly, from the Black Sea basin, including Romania and Bulgaria at the very least,” he speculated.

Romanyuk further mentioned that it was too early for Ukraine to take commitments regarding the cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea while Russia continues to attack Ukrainian territories.

“On the one hand, this seems important, but on the other hand, it is too early for Ukraine to commit to a ceasefire in the Black Sea without stopping the attacks on Ukrainian territories. Ukraine should state that ‘we will not ensure any stability and peace in the Black Sea until the missile attacks on Ukrainian territory cease.’ This should be linked; while you continue striking Ukrainian territories with missiles, as today in Sumy, and recently in Kryvyi Rih, we will not take any obligations not to target Russian warships, if they dare to emerge from their caves, their pits,” Romanyuk emphasized.

He also pointed out that Turkey is keen to be part of a coalition ensuring Black Sea security. However, Turkey has made it clear that it does not intend to send its land forces to Ukraine, but will work with NATO countries such as the UK and France to provide security guarantees in the Black Sea.

Romanyuk believes that Ukraine is unlikely to sign any agreements regarding the Black Sea until at least May.

“We should not rush ahead and show our willingness to allow Russian ships to roam freely across the Black Sea and return to Sevastopol, their bays, and continue demonstrating their power. Why do we need that? Until the missile attacks on Ukrainian territory stop, and Russia takes responsibility for halting the war, we should not meet them halfway on the Black Sea or anything else. We must speak to Russia from a position of strength, not weakness or capitulation. Thirdly, there’s no discussion yet of signing any formal agreement or contract. Nothing is being signed at this stage. Eventually, everything will likely be finalized as part of a broader package, but at least until May, Ukraine is unlikely to sign anything or come to a final agreement concerning the Black Sea. Right now, this is just about reconnaissance of positions and coordination on minor, technical and military-technical details—where, what, and how certain things might be implemented. But all of that came much later and certainly not in April. As for this being a first meeting, no one is stopping it from taking place — there's nothing wrong with that. But the key point is that Ukraine is not demonstrating any readiness to go along with everything Russia wants, nor to allow it free rein in the Black Sea," Romanyuk emphasized.

• On April 13, the Turkish Ministry of National Defense confirmed that a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations to discuss Black Sea security issues will take place in Ankara on April 15-16.