ISW: Russia's threats over Tomahawks aim to deter U.S. support for Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War writes about the issue in its daily report. 

American analysts note that Russia continues its campaign to prevent the U.S. from supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. In particular, on October 7, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that U.S. delivery of Tomahawks to Ukraine would be a “serious escalation” that allegedly would not change the situation on the front line. He also mentioned that these missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

Peskov also said that Vladimir Putin has “unequivocally” stated his position on how Russia would respond to such actions, referring to the Russian leader’s threats. On October 2, Putin warned the U.S. against supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine, claiming that American military personnel would allegedly be forced to participate directly in Ukrainian missile strikes. On October 5, he threatened that supplying Tomahawks would “lead to the destruction” of the “emerging positive trend” in U.S.-Russia relations.

"ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to portray potential U.S. Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine," the outlet stated.

The institute emphasized that the Kremlin previously conducted similar influence operations when the U.S. discussed supplying Ukraine with ATACMS tactical missile systems, HIMARS rocket artillery systems, F-16 fighters, and Abrams tanks, successfully delaying the delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine.

Analysts noted that previous strikes using U.S.-supplied long-range weapon systems did not trigger escalation from Russia, and that the West and Ukraine have repeatedly crossed Moscow’s so-called “red lines” in the past without provoking escalation.

"These recent Russian threats about Tomahawk missile provisions are part of Russia’s wider reflexive control campaign that aims to coerce Russia’s opponents to make policy decisions that actually benefit Russia," ISW concluded.

• On September 29, U.S. presidential envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, reported that American President Donald Trump authorized strikes on Russian territory using long-range weapons.
• Later, Kellogg clarified that no final decision has been made regarding the possible provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, emphasizing that the matter is under consideration by President Donald Trump.
• On September 5, Vladimir Putin threatened that supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would destroy relations between Moscow and Washington.
• On Monday, October 6, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he has "sort of made a decision" regarding the supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Putin's press secretary Peskov called this a "serious round of escalation."