ISW: If there’s ceasefire, only Ukrainian army with Western support can hold back Russian aggression

ISW report states this.

"European and NATO officials emphasized that a strong Ukrainian military backed by European security guarantees remains the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression to ensure long-term peace in Ukraine and Europe," the report reads.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in an April 5 interview with Ukrainian outlet NV, said the "first level" of security guarantees for Ukraine should come from its own troops, which he called the "first line of defense in deterrence."

Rutte also noted that Ukraine’s European partners, including France, the UK, and Italy, are exploring options for providing security guarantees once a peace agreement is in place.

The French General Staff also underlined that Ukrainian troops are the main guarantee of the country’s security and a lasting peace.

They added that France and the UK will work on defining and developing “reassurance operations” to deter Russia after any future peace deal is signed.

"ISW continues to assess that a strong Ukrainian military backed by Western security guarantees remains the most vital component of a post-war European security architecture, guaranteeing a sustainable peace in Ukraine and deterring future Russian aggression.”

“Russian demands for Ukraine's "demilitarization" such that Ukraine is unable to defend itself against future Russian aggression are counter to US President Donald Trump's efforts to achieve a lasting peace in Ukraine,” ISW concludes. 

• Military expert Ivan Kyrychevskyi explained that there are currently no prerequisites for establishing a ceasefire during the Easter holidays.