Patriots in short supply, missiles nearly gone: Ukraine’s air shield on brink

Russian ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities have once again highlighted the shortage of effective air defense systems. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reminded international partners that not all agreements on the delivery of necessary SAM systems had been fulfilled, Defense Express reports. 

“The Patriot systems that are now just sitting in storage with our partners need to be put to use to protect lives,” emphasized Zelenskyy in his address on April 6. This remark referenced Ukraine's request from one year ago for seven additional Patriot batteries. However, this wasn't about fulfilling all of Ukraine's needs, as Zelenskyy had mentioned last year that 25 batteries would be required for 100% protection. 

As of spring 2024, Ukraine had just three Patriot systems: one from the U.S., one from Germany, and one shared between Germany and the Netherlands. Additionally, one SAMP/T system, shared between Italy and France, was also received. Despite the efforts of its partners, Ukraine had received only three fully functional batteries and one “half-battery”—comprising one radar and three launchers—leaving Ukraine with exactly 50% of its announced requirement for seven Patriot systems. 

In total, Ukraine now has about six batteries of varying configurations, which is still far below the announced need of 25, or the minimum required of 10.

Italy has promised to add another SAMP/T system on its own, but the confidence that this system can effectively counter ballistic missiles is rapidly diminishing. At this stage, Ukraine's leadership is expressing an increasing preference for American SAM systems. Nonetheless, this means that, apart from two additional SAMP/T units, Ukraine’s defense forces are still missing essential components. 

However, even with the six confirmed Patriot batteries, a more significant issue has emerged that is far more critical than the shortage of SAM systems themselves: the lack of missiles for these systems. 

As Zelenskyy indirectly pointed out in his statement on February 19: "The commander calls me and says, 'We are near this city, and we don’t have any missiles for the Patriot systems, we’ve run out.'"

This situation clearly illustrates that if partners are unable to supply Ukraine's six existing Patriot batteries with the necessary missiles, adding more SAM systems will have little effect. It is evident that this issue boils down to a failure by partners, particularly the United States, to supply the required missile stockpiles.

Additionally, it’s worth recalling that in the summer of 2023, Raytheon, the manufacturer of the Patriot system, announced that Ukraine would receive five more batteries by the end of 2024. However, no further updates regarding such an increase have been provided to date.

• Experts pointed out the importance of a strong Ukrainian army and European unity in future defense strategies.