'Highly doubtful Russia has 10 Oreshnik missiles': expert on possible major attack

Defense Express military expert Oleh Katkov stated this on Espreso TV.

“The important point is that it’s highly doubtful Russia actually has 10 Oreshnik missiles—this seems more than implausible. Secondly, their kinetic use with the corresponding warheads is about as effective as five Shaheds in terms of energy. In other words, the kinetic warhead of the Oreshnik releases about as much energy as half the warhead of a single Shahed’” Katkov noted.

The military expert believes that this is just another scare story created by the Kremlin and actively hyped in the media, including Ukrainian outlets.

“That’s its main function—to intimidate. The message is: look, we have the Oreshnik, and we threaten you with it every time. Previously, a similar role was played by the Kinzhal, which, according to official Russian rhetoric, was supposed to ‘break through any existing and future missile defense.’ But the Patriot system says hello—it proved otherwise in its very first combat use. Then there was the story with the Zirkon—almost identical. It was also hyped as an ‘uninterceptable’ missile, but again, the Patriot system disagreed. The situation with the Oreshnik is a bit different,” Katkov said.

The military expert explained that the Oreshnik is a medium-range ballistic missile designed exclusively for nuclear strikes. That is its only real purpose.

“So when we talk about the Oreshnik, we’re really talking about a scenario for World War III and all its consequences. We all understand what nuclear war means—it’s the end of civilization. At the same time, since the first days of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has constantly been threatened with this danger.

But it’s important to understand: Russia has plenty of other means to deliver a nuclear strike, including the same Iskander ballistic missiles, which can carry nuclear warheads. Since 2022, cruise missiles with mock nuclear warheads have repeatedly hit Kyiv and other cities. We realize that if nuclear war starts, we won’t be able to respond in kind—Ukraine is not a nuclear state. But that would be a completely different reality.

As for the 100 missiles at once—there have been even more, and it didn’t require any special circumstances, even when Ukrainian forces destroyed aircraft at Russian air bases,” Katkov emphasized.

• Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the board at the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, noted that Russia’s nuclear doctrine states that a response to a strike on Russia’s nuclear triad applies only to nuclear states in the context of nuclear conflict.