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Bakhmut scenario is actually being repeated in Avdiivka - military expert

9 February, 2024 Friday
16:15

Military expert Dmytro Sniehyrov says that around Avdiivka the Russian troops are trying to flank Ukrainian positions to block rotation, supply of ammunition, and evacuation of the wounded

He said this on Espreso TV.

"The situation has escalated, there are fighting in residential areas of Avdiivka. The Russians have the opportunity to reach the rear of the Ukrainian group. The fighting is currently taking place in the area of Soborna and Chernyshevskoho streets, which are located in the residential area of the city. The main threat to the Ukrainian defenders is the possibility of a flanking attack on the Zenit fortification. It is worth noting that this fortified area has been prepared since 2014, and the occupiers have been trying to storm it unsuccessfully for 10 years. The enemy's tactical maneuver was that a Russian special forces unit used a drainage pipe up to 2 km long to enter the operational rear of the Ukrainian group and create a threat of both flanking attacks and operational encirclement of individual units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," noted Dmytro Sniehyrov.

According to him, Russia had been conducting preparatory engineering work for months, including welding and drilling, as well as arranging ammunition and equipment caches.

Map of fighting in Avdiivka

"As a result, the enemy took advantage of this maneuver to reach the rear of the Ukrainian group and gain a foothold in the urban area. Ukrainian defenders are forced to accumulate their operational reserves to localize the occupiers' breakthrough. The enemy imposed street battles on us, which are high-intensity battles. It turned out that the Russian army can take into account the mistakes of its previous operations, we are talking about Mariupol, when Russian troops stormed Azovstal and the Ilyich plant head-on. Probably, the main calculation was that the Russian troops would storm the Coke Plant, but the opposite is happening - they are fanning out the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. On one flank, they are bypassing Stepove and Berdychi with access to Lastochkyne, the so-called road of life. And on the other flank is Industrialnyi Avenue, which is a possibility of blocking the rotation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, bringing in medical supplies and evacuating the wounded," the military expert explained.

In his opinion, the Bakhmut scenario is actually repeating itself, which began with the Russian troops establishing control over the locations of the Armed Forces, namely the roads to Chasiv Yar and others. We had an actual drain on the operational reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which were necessary for the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

"Unfortunately, the situation is repeating itself. According to various estimates, the distance from the Russian advanced positions to the "road of life" is 900 meters to 1 km. The situation is difficult, but not critical, as they are trying to portray, and requires difficult decisions. Most likely, there will be a question of the possibility of withdrawing the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Avdiivka area to previously prepared positions. If a decision is made to hold Avdiivka, it will again indicate a political rather than a military decision on the further nature of the fighting in the Avdiivka area," Sniehyrov summarized.

  • On February 8, the General Staff reported that in the Avdiivka sector, Ukrainian defenders repelled 17 attacks near Avdiivka and another 5 attacks in the areas of Pervomaiske and Nevelske in the Donetsk region.
  • On February 9, the General Staff reported that Ukrainian defenders are holding back the Russian soldiers, who continue to try to surround Avdiivka.
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