Alaska talks mark beginning, not end

Whatever the outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, it will almost certainly be just the beginning, not the end. Even if Trump’s hope for a ceasefire materializes, it will mark only the start of his extremely complex geopolitical negotiations with a dictator who is fundamentally impossible to reason with. Putin continues to live in his own fantasy world of past myths about the “Russian Empire,” making it difficult to engage with him by the logic of the modern world.

It is likely that Putin will steer Trump away from discussing Ukraine and toward various “nuclear agreements,” which primarily serve to remind the world of the former “glory” of Soviet Russia. 

If the meeting ends in outright failure, it will signal the beginning of dialogue with Russia through sanctions—a step that is certain, even if reluctant. Trump might wish to ignore the “Ukraine question” entirely, but that is unlikely, given European positions and the need to demonstrate the White House’s authority to the world; otherwise, larger and smaller geopolitical players would disregard Washington’s stance entirely.

Thus, no one expects major breakthroughs from the meeting. It will truly be an introductory, familiarization encounter.