Russia lays information groundwork for justify loss of Kherson - ISW
Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats from the right bank of the Dnipro River and the loss of Kherson.
Analysts recall the words of the Commander of Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergey Surovikin that the Russian military leadership has to make “difficult decisions” regarding Kherson Oblast and the "evacuation" announced by Gauleiter Volodymyr Saldo.
“Surovikin‘s and Saldo’s statements are likely attempts to set information conditions for a full Russian retreat across the Dnipro River, which would cede Kherson city and other significant territories in Kherson Oblast to advancing Ukrainian troops,” ISW noted.
Russian forces are also setting information conditions to conduct a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP).
“The Russian military may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river,” the Institute for the Study of War emphasized.
Surovikin claimed on October 18 that he has received information that Kyiv intends to strike the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), which he alleged would cause destructive flooding in Kherson Oblast.
Saldo echoed this claim and warned that Ukrainian forces intend to strike dams upstream of Kherson city.
Analysts explain that Russian authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka HPP to cover their own retreat further south into Kherson Oblast.
“The Kremlin could attempt to leverage such a false-flag attack to overshadow the news of a third humiliating retreat for Russian forces, this time from western Kherson,” ISW assumes.
Experts believe that Russia is using the announced "evacuation" of the civilian population to remove occupation officials and collaborators from the right bank of the Dnipro River.
“The Kremlin is trying to damage Ukraine’s long-term economic recovery. And, more importantly, to support Russia’s ethnic cleansing campaign, which is attempting to eradicate Ukrainian ethnicity and culture,” ISW added.
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