Russia prepares for "decisive effort" in Luhansk region - ISW

This is stated in the ISW report.

"Russian forces appear to be preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast, although it is unclear whether for defensive or offensive operations," the report says.

Thus, Russia continues to accumulate equipment and forces. Groups of militants, which probably previously operated in the Kherson region, seem to have redeployed to the Luhansk region.

Social media footage from late December increasingly shows Russian equipment moving through the Luhansk region.

And Russian forces use thermobaric artillery of the military district in the Luhansk combat zone, which may indicate the priority of operations in this area, experts say.

On December 26, Ukrainian intelligence reported that the Russian military appointed a new commander of the Western Military District (MD), who commands Russian troops from the command post in Boguchary, Voronezh region. 

Analysts claim, units of the Western Military District are the main forces operating in the Luhansk sector, and the change of command may indicate attempts to support new "decisive effort" in the area. For several months, Russian troops have been creating large trenches and field fortifications in the Luhansk region, which could support Russia's planned "decisive attack" in the Luhansk region. 

"The above-mentioned indicators may indicate that Russian troops in Luhansk region are preparing for an offensive operation," the experts emphasize.

But, ISW believes that Russian forces are less likely to launch a new offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region in winter. Russian troops are likely to create a defense against possible Ukrainian offensive operations in this area.

"Recent Russian mining and fortification efforts in Zaporizhia Oblast and the Dnipro River coastline indicate that Russian forces do not seek to conduct an offensive there," the analysts added.

• On December 28, the head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration Serhiy Haidai informed that not only the occupation authorities but also Russian civilians who carried out reconstruction works left Kreminna.

• A deputy of the Kharkiv regional council, the officer of the Ukrainian National Guard Oleksandr Doroshenko said on Espreso TV channel that the Russian army will try to defend the city of Rubizhne, Luhansk region when the Ukrainian Defense Forces liberate Kreminna.