Russia is breaking against the Ukrainian defense in Bakhmut- military expert Zgurets

Situation around Bakhmut and Soledar

First, let's talk about the hottest spots on the front line - Bakhmut and Soledar. Foreign media, citing British intelligence and the Ukrainian military, say that Russia has weakened its offensive on Bakhmut and now concentrates more forces on neighboring Soledar. In my opinion, it is not that Russia is weakening the offensive. Actually, Russia is breaking against the reality of today's Ukrainian defense in Bakhmut. Now it is trying to surround the city from different directions, using different variations of the offensive along the line Yakovlivka - Pidhorodne - Soledar, where the fighting is currently taking place. It is also trying to operate near Klishchiivka and Kurdyumivka to get to the routes that provide Bakhmut with the necessary logistics from the South. But today the spokesman for the Eastern direction Serhiy Cherevatyi said that tough and heavy fighting continues near Soledar, our legendary paratroopers are working, the situation is constantly monitored by the front command and there are no grounds to say that Soledar is under the Russian control. Now all the necessary measures are being taken to improve the situation in the town and repel the enemy, who is trying to gain a foothold in Soledar, but so far they have not succeeded, and, in my opinion, will not succeed. 

An officer with the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a former MP, Ihor Lapin, says that Russia is doing the same old things. It is looking for a place where it can break through Ukraine's defense. Having approached a well-organized defense near Bakhmut, Russian forces realized that they had little chance there. The same happened when they got to Popasna and realized that they could not completely capture the town, and tried to surround it from 2 sides. They acted in a similar way in other directions: they tried to encompass the city in a horseshoe, to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to leave the city, having very narrow opportunities to leave the settlement. They are also trying to turn the Bakhmut operation into an envelopment, but at the expense of Soledar, because Russian troops tried to regroup and redeploy part of their Armed Forces, specifically the Wagner troops, to Soledar. It was clear as soon as Putin started mentioning the so-called truce. In fact, he wanted to use it to ensure that such movement of troops did not take place under the fire control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Putin wanted to quietly move some troops from Bakhmut a little bit towards Soledar during the truce. He failed, we did not fall for it. The movement of troops was accompanied by AFU artillery shelling. Of course, it is harder to hit a moving target, and Russia was able to transfer part of the troops and, using a small advantage at the operational and tactical level, began to storm Soledar. Ukrainian command sees this, the reinforcement of the 46th Airborne Brigade has worked. The situation will be resolved in the next day or two. Deploying troops is one story, logistics - another, artillery - one more, so the invaders will now try to increase their pressure by deploying more means, in particular heavy artillery. Ukraine's task is to establish no weaker defense there than in Bakhmut. There are also such concepts as terrain folds, heights and control of the territory by artillery. Ihor Lapin believes that the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also sees this. We will monitor the situation.

Prospects for a new Russian offensive in the Eastern and Southern Ukraine

The AFU officer notes that Russia is unlikely to attack now in southern and eastern Ukraine. Regarding what may happen in summer, it is too far away and Ihor Lapin is not ready to prognose so far ahead. There are greater risks that we have at most a month or two to organize a counteroffensive and defeat the main group of troops in the Donetsk direction. These mobilized, when they are dressed, shod and given Kalashnikovs, should be deployed somewhere. It is hard to believe that they will be sent for training, perhaps some part, but the rest will definitely go to reinforce the forces concentrated in Ukraine. If we leave the Russian grouping intact by that time, then, having received reinforcements, having equipment, armored artillery and everything necessary, it will pressure AFU. Then, perhaps, Russia will be able to organize a big offensive in the spring. If we now receive additional weapons announced by the West (tanks, heavy weapons), we will have the necessary time to defeat the Russian group in the Bakhmut direction, in Avdiivka, Soledar. This is what needs to be done so that the newly mobilized have no one to help.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces need to increase personnel

According to Ihor Lapin, first of all, it is necessary to stop fooling Ukrainians. Couch prophets and pink ponies predict the end of active hostilities in 3 days, a month, access to Crimea by the new year. We need to stop paying attention to them. Ihor Lapin notes that we all know that our Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been instructed to organize verification and mobilization of those who are registered in other countries. This primarily concerns students who have previously gone abroad. In this situation, it is necessary to do this. If the state does it, then there is no need to deceive people. Ihor Lapin does not believe that these students will be able to form the core of the Armed Forces. It would be wrong, because “brains of the county” should be preserved. Someone has to build Ukraine when the war is over. But the military registration and enlistment offices are in complete disarray, fallen soldiers receive summons, and these are not isolated cases. We have queues of people who want to enlist, especially in western Ukraine, who go to military offices as if to work, and they are promised to get a call back, and they are still waiting for it. Mobilization is necessary, because if we do not rotate, we will exhaust the personnel on the front line. We need to get ready, because Russia has a huge human mobilization potential, up to 25 million people. 

New package of US military assistance

In any case, Ukraine needs weapons today. We hope for US’ assistance, in particular through the most powerful package of more than USD 3 billion announced this week. Military analyst and Defence Express editor-in-chief Oleh Katkov notes that the peculiarity of this package is that it provides for not just armored vehicles, but that for the first time the weapons are being supplied not in single units, but in significant amounts, enough for a battalion at least, that is, 50 Bradley, 18 M109 self-propelled artillery systems (most likely A6 version), other 105 mm artillery, M113 armored personnel carriers and Hanbi SUVs, ammunition, missiles for SAM. Oleh Katkov believes that the figures have risen to 50. The version of Bradley that Ukraine gets is M2A2 and corresponds to the 90s. The main visual difference between the M2A2 and M2A3 is the lack of a commander's panorama in the older version, while the internal differences are much deeper. If the A3 is fully digital, the M2A2 is older. In any case, thanks to the new armor, this vehicle can withstand 30 mm caliber ammunition installed on Russian armored vehicles (BMP-2, BMP-3). This armament has a 25 mm cannon with ammunition that can pierce through the enemy's AFVs, and has ATGM to fight tanks. It was quite logical, because this version is supplied to the allies, in particular NATO.Croatia received the M2A2 version, as well as Ukraine. Bradley has a TOW ATGM that can destroy tanks in frontal projection as efficiently as possible. This ATGM is familiar to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as it has been supplied and used effectively before. Regarding the 25 mm gun, it has sub-caliber armor-piercing shells. Even in the conventional version, they pierce BMP-1, BMP-2, BMP-3 at all real combat distances. Regarding the 25 mm sub-caliber ammunition with a uranium penetrator Ukraine receives, they will pierce these vehicles completely. Even when Bradley fires in the side projection of tanks, this gun will completely destroy them. The US has offered us to launch RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles directly from Buk systems, so the question of where to get missiles for this Soviet system can be considered resolved. This is great, because Buk is one of the main air defense systems that actually protect the Ukrainian sky.