British Defence Intelligence posted the latest report on Twitter.
By February 7, 2023, open-source images show that Russia may have further strengthened defensive fortifications in the central Zaporizhzhia region of southern Ukraine, particularly near the town of Tarasivka. Back in January, Russia installed similar defensive fortifications between the towns of Vasylivka and Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia region.
According to British analysts, despite the current operational focus on central Donbas, Russia remains concerned about guarding the extremities of its extended front line. This is demonstrated by continued construction of defensive fortifications in Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk regions and deployments of personnel.
“Russia's front line in Ukraine amounts to approximately 1 288 km with the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast frontline at 192 km. A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia would seriously challenge the viability of Russia's 'land bridge' linking Russia's Rostov region and Crimea,” the report said.
They emphasized that Ukrainian success in Luhansk would further undermine Russia's professed war aim of liberating the Donbas.
“Deciding which of these threats to prioritize countering is likely one of the central dilemmas for Russian operational planners,” the report concluded.
On February 11, American publication The New York Times predicted that Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region would most probably be a direction of a new AFU counteroffensive.