Russia chooses between strengthening Dnipro group, countering Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia - UK intelligence

This is reported by the UK Ministry of Defense.

It is noted that since the beginning of July 2023, the activity of hostilities has probably increased in the lower reaches of the Dnipro River.

"As well as intense combat on the eastern bank around the small Ukrainian bridgehead near the ruined Antonivsky Bridge, small units of Russian and Ukrainian troops have also been contesting islands in the Dnipro delta," the ministry tweeted. 

Analysts write that the Ukrainian and Russian militaries use small, fast motor boats, and Ukraine has successfully used tactical unmanned aerial vehicles with unilateral attacks to destroy some of the Russian boats.

"Russia faces a dilemma in deciding whether to respond to these threats by strengthening its Dnipro Group of Forces at the expense of the stretched units facing the Ukrainian counter-offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast," the intelligence noted. 

Ukraine's counteroffensive

On June 4, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive on the southern frontline, continuing a series of offensives near Bakhmut and in other directions.

On June 19, Deputy Defense Minister of Ukraine Hanna Maliar reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated Pyatykhatky, Zaporizhzhia region, and advanced up to 7 km in the Tavria direction.

On June 24, the Ukrainian Defense Forces officially confirmed the liberation of the territories near Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, which had been under occupation since 2014.

On June 26, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar also said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had de-occupied the village of Rivnopil, Donetsk region. It is located in the Volnovakha district of the Donetsk region. The Russian army occupied the village in March 2022.

On July 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy established ten military administrations in the Zaporizhzhia region and appointed their heads.

According to the General Staff on July 13, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to conduct offensive operations on three frontlines - Bakhmut, Melitopol, and Berdiansk. The General Staff reported that the Ukrainian army had some success in the areas of Novodanylivka - Shyroka Balka; Mala Tokmachka - Novopokrovka.

The Defense Ministry reported that as of July 17, since the beginning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive in the Bakhmut sector, the military had liberated an area of more than 30 km². In the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions, almost 180 km² of Ukrainian land were de-occupied.

In the morning report on July 19, the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff noted that the Russian forces were attacking in the Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka directions, with over 20 combat engagements taking place over the past day.Ukrainian troops destroyed 470 Russian soldiers, 6 cruise missiles and 46 UAVs over the last day.