Unfortunately, we pay too much attention to Crimea as part of the war. Yes, the return of Crimea is a symbolic defeat for Russia, more so than the return of Luhansk and Donetsk. And to some extent, I am even confused by this excessive interest in Crimea, and the almost complete lack of interest in the return of Luhansk and Donetsk. Sometimes I fear that in the perception of many Ukrainians, Luhansk and Donetsk are not Ukraine. And this is not the case.
At the same time, there are a lot of wrong illusions and fantasies about how we will return Crimea. Most people imagine our tanks breaking into the peninsula and fighting for Sevastopol. In my opinion, such a scenario would be a disaster in terms of our losses, and in fact, there is no need for it.
The main scenario for the return of Crimea is an operational encirclement. If our troops break through to the Sea of Azov and cut the corridor, we can destroy the Crimean bridge, and take control of the sea area with anti-ship missiles, then Crimea and the entire southern group of Russian troops will be in an operational encirclement. Under these conditions, Putin will have two options: either to use a tactical nuclear strike or to start negotiations on withdrawal from Crimea and southern Ukraine.
“The Russian forces conducted a simulation and saw that the consequences of using nuclear weapons would be catastrophic for them. First, they would lose the support of China, which would not be able to justify it and would not benefit from a nuclear escalation in a situation where it is losing in terms of arms. Secondly, it will remove any restrictions for the West”
A nuclear tactical strike is unlikely, although it still has a chance. I have written about this many times. The Russian forces conducted a simulation and saw that the consequences of using nuclear weapons would be catastrophic for them. First, they would lose the support of China, which would not be able to justify it and would not benefit from a nuclear escalation in a situation where it is losing in terms of arms. Secondly, it will remove any restrictions for the West. A small nuclear explosion would make the West a direct participant in the war. The Americans themselves have warned the Russians that they will respond to the use of nuclear weapons with a non-nuclear missile strike, for example, on the Russian Black Sea Fleet. That is, Putin will not gain anything from a nuclear strike, but will only lose even more. That leaves the second scenario, our favourite "goodwill gesture."
The Russians are also well aware of this, so believe me, they are preparing against this scenario. And even if we come to the shore of the Azov Sea, they are preparing to hold the line as long as possible. In any case, I am trying to convey to you the idea that in order to return Crimea, we do not need to break into the peninsula with tanks. In this regard, it even seems to me that it is much easier to return it than to return Luhansk and Donetsk.
About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist
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