Putin did not pursue 'Easter truce' out of goodwill — economist Nepran

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"In politics, nothing happens for no reason. Every look, gesture, and word is calculated and has a certain meaning; no one does anything for no reason. Right now, there's a lot of speculation on the internet about why this is happening. For this, we have experts, analysts, and journalists. But we can look at it from an economic perspective, because I always like to quote, even though I'm sometimes criticized for it, what Marx said 250 years ago: politics is a concentrated expression of the economy. So, if you want to understand what is happening politically, you need to look at it economically. What's going on with the economy, with the money? That will make it clearer what is going on," he said.

Mykhailo Nepran noted that Russia had spent years preparing for a full-scale invasion, carefully building economic mechanisms and stockpiling resources. Understanding that sanctions would inevitably follow such aggression, Moscow planned ahead to endure restrictions. As a result, early expectations that the Russian economy would collapse within six months to a year did not materialize — it proved to be more resilient and adaptable than initially anticipated.

However, Nepran highlighted the most terrifying forecast for Putin: the drop in oil prices. "The Soviet Union didn’t collapse because of Gorbachev or some CIA agent; the Americans deliberately agreed with the Saudis and Gulf countries to crash oil prices. The price of oil dropped to as low as $8 to $20 per barrel. Now it’s at $50, but the Russian budget was based on a price of $71. So, the price dropped, and it significantly reduces the inflow of money needed for the war," he emphasized.

Nepran also noted that the war is primarily about money, and Russia’s internal resources are gradually depleting. "These 'future generations’ funds' are already exhausted; only 1/3 is left. There are many economic processes going on, such as rising inflation and the interest rate. On one hand, it seems like the population has more money, but these aren’t from the economy; they come from the war. The money received hasn’t been used to produce any goods. People bought cars, fur coats, and apartments, but nothing was produced. The economy is starting to falter," he added.

Nepran concluded that economic problems are forcing Putin to make such moves as the "Easter truce." He also pointed out that a decrease in living standards in Russia is inevitable, but it will be gradual. "For the last 20 years, Russians were spoiled by a relatively high standard of living, social benefits, low mortgages, and the opportunity to travel. There was a social contract between the government and the people: you don’t get involved in politics, and we’ll provide a comfortable life much better than in post-Soviet countries. Now, this is changing, and this is what’s forcing Putin to take these unusual steps. From an economic point of view, it’s clear why he’s doing this. The problems need to be solved by lifting sanctions. What do they always talk about in negotiations with Ukraine? To leave the territories and lift sanctions. That’s why he makes gestures like, 'Look, I’m a good guy, I stopped the fighting, now lift the sanctions,'" Nepran concluded.

Russia self-declares "Easter truce"

Vladimir Putin unilaterally announced an “Easter truce” beginning at 6:00 p.m. on Saturday, April 19, 2025.

Leading up to 6:00 p.m., air raid alerts continued in Kyiv, and Russian drones were shot down over the capital’s Left Bank.

At 5:30 p.m., Russia launched a missile strike on Izyum in the Kharkiv region. Even after the announced start of the truce, Russian FPV drones continued hitting targets in the Kherson region.

After 9:00 p.m. on April 19, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief briefed President Zelenskyy with updated information from all frontline sectors regarding the implementation of Putin’s so-called “Easter truce.” At that time, it was reported that while some areas had quieted down, others remained active with ongoing hostilities.

As of Easter morning, April 20, Russian forces appear to be trying to create the impression of a ceasefire at the front, but are still carrying out isolated attacks and attempting to push forward in some areas.