Prigozhin does not retreat from Bakhmut being dependent on Russian MoD – ISW

This is stated in the ISW report.

On May 9, Prigozhin announced that Wagner PMC would continue fighting for Bakhmut and defend its demands in the next few days, even though the Russian Ministry of Defense did not provide additional shells by the May 10 deadline. He also failed to contact the deputy chief of the theater of military operations in Ukraine, who was acting as a mediator between the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and Wagner.

ISW argues that Prigozhin's failure to follow through on his threat to withdraw from Bakhmut indicates his awareness of his dependence on the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Prigozhin attempted to blackmail the Russian Ministry of Defense to change the priorities of the attack on Bakhmut, so that he could claim victory independently in the future, ahead of the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.

He criticized the officials responsible for the distribution of ammunition for senselessly storing shells and causing the deaths of Russian servicemen. According to experts, “Prigozhin likely expected the Russian MoD to entirely cave to his demands at the risk of abandoning their own objectives for regular Russian forces but likely realized he cannot follow through with his ultimatum at this time.”

“Prigozhin also likely anticipated that Surovikin would be able to coerce the Russian MoD into satisfying Wagner's demands; but his inability to reach Surovikin, if true, indicates that Prigozhin does not have as much leverage within the Russian MoD as he imagined," the report reads. 

The Wagner financier continues to shift blame for heavy losses and slow progress in Bakhmut onto other Russian irregular formations, in an attempt to portray his PMС as the only competent force operating in the area.

• Prigozhin wrote a letter to the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense, in which he announced his intention to withdraw his mercenaries from Bakhmut on May 10. Previously, Prigozhin had repeatedly cited the lack of ammunition as the reason for their struggles, but Defense Minister Shoigu has assured that the army has enough ammunition.

• The Armed Forces previously explained the cause of Prigozhin's statements about "shell hunger" of the occupiers - his words indicated their inability to take control of Bakhmut, located in Donetsk region.

• On May 9, the head of the illegal Wagner PMC reported in another video about problems with ammunition for his mercenaries, and also complained about the active actions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in Donetsk region.

• Serhii Cherevaty, spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces, said on Espreso that in this way Prigozhin is looking for an excuse as to why he did not fulfill his obligations.