Next weeks near Bakhmut will be decisive for Russia. Serhiy Zgurets’ column

Situation around Bakhmut

Russia has been attempting to capture Bakhmut for 10 months and has invested 70-100 thousand soldiers of varying quality. They have reached the last line of houses in the southwestern quarter of the city. However, it seems that they now understand that capturing Bakhmut will result in a Pyrrhic victory, and their situation will only worsen. It's not just about entering the administrative borders of the district center, which the enemies have not been able to do despite Prigozhin's statement. Russian troops are advancing within the city, while our forces have retreated to the sector near the former monument to the MiG-17 aircraft. Intense fighting continues in the vicinity of buildings, particularly along Tchaikovskoho street and inside the buildings themselves. Our infantry is engaged in combat operations, snipers are active, and anti-tank units are destroying enemy vehicles that appear on this part of the front. The enemy is using artillery and aviation to destroy structures and buildings. Beyond them lies about two kilometers of open space and elevated terrain to the west, where our new line of defense is established. It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will be able to advance there under the fire of our artillery, and they may not even attempt it, given their current circumstances.

For the fighters of Wagner's group, the mousetrap mentioned by Syrsky seems to be snapping shut. Yesterday, on May 21, Colonel General made a new statement, emphasizing that despite controlling only a small part of Bakhmut, the defense of this area remains crucial. We are advancing on the flanks, encircling Bakhmut tactically. Over a week ago, Ukrainian forces launched flank attacks in the north and south of Bakhmut. In the north, we are advancing towards dominant heights near Berkhivka, and in the south, we are targeting the heights in front of Klishchiivka. Our focus now is on Klishchiivka, where we have engaged in small arms and AGS fire. The distance to Klishchiivka is approximately 1.5 - 2 km, and our artillery also has control over the area. It is anticipated that, after a week of risky assaults, we will gain control over Klishchiivka. The 3rd Assault Brigade operating on the southern flank has also reported positive progress, having pushed back the Russian Federation in an area 1,700 m wide and 700 m deep. While our forces' advancement on the flanks is not yet sufficient for a complete encirclement, it is acceptable for seizing the initiative and leveling the front line. However, in the most optimistic scenario, if we proceed further, we may gain control over one of the routes that provide access to Bakhmut. The situation is reminiscent of the enemy's failed attempt to surround the city previously. The trap for the Russian Federation can also be sprung from the rear, ultimately leading to a tactical encirclement. The enemy will likely divert reserves to Bakhmut, as they have already begun doing so to prevent Ukraine from making swift advances on the flanks. This development is causing panic among Russian military leaders since their forces are helping the Armed Forces, recruiting inexperienced units with the perspective of destroying them and weakening other areas of the front. Ukraine has not deployed any new brigades in the Bakhmut area. The ongoing actions are carried out by forces not directly involved in the main effort to prepare for the spring-summer offensive operation. Indeed, the coming weeks will be decisive for the Russian Federation and Wagner PMC. Unfavorable weather conditions, such as the recurring rain in the East and South, may hinder our progress.

Denys Yaroslavskyi, the commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces unit, highlighted that Bakhmut, as a city, no longer exists. It has been reduced to ruins, a demonstration of the Russian Federation's actions for the world to witness. Bakhmut serves as a testament to the true face of Russia. The world needs to understand that the Russian army has been attempting to occupy a small town for almost ten months, destroying it completely. It is another example of the "invincible" second army in the world, which is actually merciless and destructive. Bakhmut stands as a war marker. Each 10-meter stretch poses significant challenges for us to recapture. We not only need to drive out the enemy but also navigate through the fortified areas seized by Russia. Progress is slow yet steady, as we gradually approach an operational encirclement. Bakhmut will become a rat trap for the Russians.

There are no Wagner fighters present; instead, regular troops from motorized rifle brigades are engaged. Wagner fighters did not flee due to half of them being under the influence of drugs, while the others realized that attempting to escape would lead to their own comrades shooting them. Regular troops do retreat because they are not being shot for this. The enemy's retreat is not significant, but the Armed Forces are gradually pushing them back, inching closer to the strategic height set by command. The distance is less than 1 km, but the battles are intense and challenging, with minefields and slow advancement through cleared areas while utilizing artillery, tanks, and aviation. The Russians are equally determined, operating with the same intensity. Denys Yaroslavskyi emphasizes the need for aircraft, as using FAB analogues, for example, to clear roads and dugouts would greatly assist our progress. The more aviation we have, the faster we can advance. Our aviation operates meticulously and in close coordination. Currently, it is a war dominated by drones, with unmanned aerial vehicles constantly in the air, providing coordination for artillery operations.

Military aid from the USA

An announcement was made regarding a new military aid package from the US, amounting to $375 million. The weapons will be sourced from the Pentagon's stockpile and swiftly delivered. The package includes projectiles for HIMARS, ammunition of 155 mm and 105 mm caliber, ATGMs, Javelin missiles, and new guided missiles for laser-guided systems. These items are urgently needed on the battlefield to support Ukraine's Armed Forces in their large-scale counteroffensive. Additionally, the package contains specialized military equipment, specifically designed to enhance capabilities on the battlefield. This includes armored bridge-layers, medical vehicles, trucks, and trawlers for transporting heavy equipment. These additions are crucial for reinforcing our offensive-oriented mechanized brigades, and further details will be provided through supplementary supplies from the US. Notably, the United States has taken a significant step by agreeing to provide Ukraine with F-16s. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine shared a tweet featuring the planes painted in our military pixel colors.

F-16 prospects

Ivan Kyrychevskyi, an analyst at the information and consulting company Defense Express, explained that the optimistic estimates regarding the provision of aircraft to Ukraine in four months were based on statements made by the adviser to the Minister of Defense in Western media and by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the G7 meeting. The supply of F-16 aircraft will be facilitated within these political frameworks. Historically, when there is political will, the United States invests in technological cycles related to weaponry. It is possible that the planes will be operational and contribute to Ukraine's defense efforts by the fall.

The plan involves acquiring 12-24 fighters from Denmark or the Netherlands, which are in the MLU version. These aircraft are equipped with a radar system capable of detecting targets at a range of 110 km. This allows for the use of AM-120 and AM-9 missiles for air defense and guided air bombs without restrictions. Special equipment would be required to handle cruise missiles. These planes have undergone modernization and have a service life until at least the 2030s, but their lifespan can potentially be extended as they typically remain operational for at least 50 years.

The success of the plan will heavily depend on Western contractors. Initially, it may seem complicated as each aircraft requires a team of at least eight technicians, and every flight hour requires up to 100 hours of technical training. Western analysts have raised concerns about these fighters' suitability for attacks on field airfields. However, Taiwan has been working on addressing this issue successfully. In Iraq, when there was an urgent need to establish aircraft maintenance capabilities to combat ISIS, online consultations were conducted, and Iraqi technicians were trained to carry out the repairs. This approach allowed for the maintenance of a standard readiness level of 60-70%. Simplifying the service procedures is being considered, and negotiations on this matter will take place in the coming weeks.

Initially, officials such as Sullivan advised against using the F-16s to attack the Russian Federation, while Biden was more subtle, warning against using them to advance into Russian territory. The varying explanations may be related to the type of long-range fighter jets that Ukraine will receive. Ukraine's aspirations include obtaining AJM-158 cruise missiles, which would have the capability to reach the Engels airfield and operate in strategic aviation. However, there may be room for negotiations regarding the specific long-range weapons provided, including not only anti-ship "Harpoons" but also AJM-154, modified "Harpoons" designed for striking ground targets with a range of 200 km. The White House has not explicitly prohibited bombing the Russian Federation but will determine which long-range weapons will be supplied to Ukraine.

Strengthening Ukraine’s potential ahead of the counteroffensive

Besides the fighter jets' situation, there is additional news regarding the augmentation of the armed forces in preparation for the upcoming offensive. The Times recently reported on the training taking place in Sweden for an entire brigade, as well as the provision of weaponry for transfer to Ukraine. Approximately 3,000 to 5,000 of our troops underwent training in Sweden, specifically focusing on the handling of equipment that will be provided to us: Leopard 2 tanks and a specialized BMP designed for combat in swampy and snowy terrain. Additionally, they will be equipped with the unique Archer self-propelled gun. Sweden will deliver a fully equipped brigade to us, and our military personnel have been trained accordingly. This brigade will be hailed as the most technologically advanced.

Although leaked Pentagon documents mention the training of nine brigades, none of them specifically refer to the CV-90 or Archer systems. This new brigade is not included in those documents. Furthermore, Ukraine is independently preparing three additional brigades, with one of them having completed their training in Sweden. The exact utilization of these brigades remains uncertain. However, the event will provide significant support to Ukraine in terms of weaponry and personnel training. Despite variations in training models, they have proven to be highly effective.