'Two main scenarios': political analyst weighs in on chances of full ceasefire

He discussed this on Espreso TV.

"I think there are two main scenarios for how this could play out. One is that a ceasefire could begin on Christian Easter. This year, as far as I know, both Catholic and Orthodox Easter fall on April 20. Given the Russian elite’s so-called devotion to Orthodoxy and religious symbolism, I wouldn’t rule out that the period leading up to Easter, which then transitions into the celebration of the 'great victory,' could be the moment when — if Putin wants to end the hot phase of the war soon — this is when it would happen. And I suspect this scenario has been in consideration for quite some time, at least since late 2023. There were certain signs that public opinion was being prepared for this, both in Russia and in Ukraine. However, this option has not been, and still isn't, seen as a victory in either country," he said.

Maksym Rozumnyi pointed out that this scenario makes sense given that the war has reached a deadlock, and an exit strategy is needed.

At the same time, the second scenario, in his view, is that there will be no ceasefire, and by the spring-autumn period of 2025, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will attempt to seize more Ukrainian territory.

"The second scenario is that Putin, as always, will try to push for more at the last moment or, so to speak, drive a wedge between his partners. He may use the spring, summer, and early autumn of 2025 to expand his territorial gains and put more pressure on Ukraine. In this case, a full ceasefire won’t happen within the timeframe I mentioned, and the war will continue. Both scenarios could come with rhetorical, political, and other effects, accusations of violating agreements, provocations, or simply strategic delays. But these are the two main trajectories to keep in mind," the political scientist explained.

• On March 25, the second stage of negotiations between Ukraine and the United States took place in Riyadh, with Russia also participating. The key agreements focused on ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea and developing measures to prevent attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
• That same day, the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of Europe adopted a resolution supporting efforts toward a ceasefire in Ukraine while reaffirming the inviolability of its internationally recognized borders.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that a ceasefire related to energy infrastructure could take effect on March 25, following an agreement with the United States.