During ‘peace talks’, Russia may be preparing to invade Europe — diplomat

This viewpoint was expressed by Valeriy Chaly, Chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center and Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, during the roundtable discussion "Ukraine’s Role and Place in Shaping the European Security and Defense System," held on March 28.

"When European politicians perceive a greater threat to themselves, they intensify their efforts to support defense demands. As soon as this concern diminishes slightly—whether because the U.S. becomes more involved or discussions about a ceasefire begin—their interest starts to fade," Chaly noted.

He emphasized that Putin is eager to demonstrate NATO’s inability to respond decisively. However, the readiness for such a response will only take shape in the coming years, meaning that the risk of Russia escalating from threats to the use of force remains a possibility even within the next year.

"In my view, this is a window of opportunity for Russia, which could be further reinforced by a ceasefire in Ukraine. During peace negotiations on Ukraine, preparations could be underway for the next test or a ground invasion of Europe," Chaly stated.

While Europe is aware of these threats, there is still a lack of dynamism, speed in implementing measures, and a full understanding of tactics. "We cannot yet say that a common European defense and security space has been established," he observed.

"Ukraine must also align its strategy with the EU rather than the U.S., understanding how we will coordinate our actions there in response to a threat that is not going away. Action is needed today, not postponed for the future," Chaly concluded.

The roundtable was organized by the Defense Information Consortium, which brings together leading analysts from Ukrainian and international research centers, including the National Institute for Strategic Studies, the Defense Express information and consulting company, the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, the New Geopolitics Research Network, and others. 

The Consortium prepares analytical materials for government bodies, helping to make strategically important defense decisions.