ISW: Ukrainian army has many options to cut Russian critical supply routes
The Ukrainian forces have many options to cut critical Russian land routes along the northern coast of the Sea of Azov, of which the de-occupation of Melitopol is only one
These conclusions were reached by analysts of the Institute for the Study of War, according to their report.
On August 17, the Washington Post reported that, according to the US intelligence, the Ukrainian military will not reach the occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhya region during the counter-offensive and will not achieve its main goal of cutting the Russian land corridor to Crimea.
According to an unconfirmed intelligence assessment, effective Russian defensive operations and dense minefields have been holding back the Ukrainian army's advance and will continue to do so.
According to the WP article, anonymous US officials said that the Ukrainian forces would advance within a few kilometres of Melitopol, but no further.
Advancement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces within a few kilometres of Melitopol would put important road and railway lines on which the Russians depend to supply their troops within range of Ukrainian artillery systems, seriously undermining the occupiers' ability to continue using them for this purpose.
The ISW notes that it remains unclear from the published reports why US intelligence analysts reportedly concluded that the liberation of Melitopol is "the only way Ukraine can cut the Russian land bridge".
Indeed, experts at the Institute for the Study of War actually estimate that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have many options to cut critical Russian land routes along the northern coast of the Sea of Azov, of which the de-occupation of Melitopol is only one.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in particular, offered a different opinion from the alleged intelligence assessment on August 15, stating that the prospects for Ukraine’s counteroffensive to make significant “strategic gains” will remain unclear for at least a month or longer.
The ISW notes that it is premature to assess the overall success of the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive, which is taking place on several fronts and is moving towards several different apparent targets.
Analysts have consistently assessed that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will be "a protracted, non-linear series of operations, which will likely continue to occur in phases of differing tempos".
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive is not a discrete set of scheduled operations, and current counteroffensive operations are likely setting more favorable conditions for larger significant operations," the report says.
The ISW concludes that it continues to believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counter-offensive operations “are significantly degrading defending Russian forces and that the overall degradation of the Russian defensive line creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially operationally significant”.
On August 16, the Ukrainian military completely liberated Urozhayne in the Donetsk region. The defense forces are consolidating their positions.
On August 15, Zelenskyy met with the military, which is conducting offensive operations in the Melitopol sector.
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