Espreso. Global

ISW names conditions under which Ukraine can regain initiative on front this year

21 February, 2023 Tuesday
09:09

The Armed Forces of Ukraine will have the potential to regain the initiative at the front in 2023 with sufficient and timely support from Western partners

ISW reports.

It is noted that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov have made statements in recent days about the Armed Forces' preparations for a counteroffensive in the near future.

"Zelenskyy and Reznikov’s statements are likely direct responses to unspecified US defense officials, who reportedly told the Washington Post on February 14 that the United States is concerned about Ukraine’s ability to defend Bakhmut while also pursuing counteroffensive operations," the Institute's report says.

ISW believes that Ukraine's decision to defend Bakhmut is a strategically sound effort to pin Russian troops in a particular section of the front and attrit them.

Analysts recall that, according to Zelenskyy, Ukrainians will continue to defend Bakhmut, but "not at any cost."

"It has long been clear that Ukraine would not continue to defend Bakhmut at the risk of seeing large numbers of Ukrainian troops encircled in the city, so Zelensky’s comment is not likely a real change in Kyiv’s strategy," ISW says.

Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence member Fedir Venislavskyi notably stated that Russia has "all combat-ready units on the line of contact In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and partly in Zaporizhia Oblast." 

Thus, the parliamentarian confirmed that Moscow does not have a large uncommitted combat ready reserves that can be deployed and change the course of operations.

"These Ukrainian statements are consistent with ISW’s assessment that Ukraine has the capacity to regain the initiative in 2023 with sufficient and timely Western backing," analysts conclude.

 
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