ISW names conditions under which Ukraine can regain initiative on front this year

ISW reports.

It is noted that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov have made statements in recent days about the Armed Forces' preparations for a counteroffensive in the near future.

"Zelenskyy and Reznikov’s statements are likely direct responses to unspecified US defense officials, who reportedly told the Washington Post on February 14 that the United States is concerned about Ukraine’s ability to defend Bakhmut while also pursuing counteroffensive operations," the Institute's report says.

ISW believes that Ukraine's decision to defend Bakhmut is a strategically sound effort to pin Russian troops in a particular section of the front and attrit them.

Analysts recall that, according to Zelenskyy, Ukrainians will continue to defend Bakhmut, but "not at any cost."

"It has long been clear that Ukraine would not continue to defend Bakhmut at the risk of seeing large numbers of Ukrainian troops encircled in the city, so Zelensky’s comment is not likely a real change in Kyiv’s strategy," ISW says.

Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence member Fedir Venislavskyi notably stated that Russia has "all combat-ready units on the line of contact In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and partly in Zaporizhia Oblast." 

Thus, the parliamentarian confirmed that Moscow does not have a large uncommitted combat ready reserves that can be deployed and change the course of operations.

"These Ukrainian statements are consistent with ISW’s assessment that Ukraine has the capacity to regain the initiative in 2023 with sufficient and timely Western backing," analysts conclude.

• Recall that on February 13, Bakhmut switched to an access control system. Civilians and the press can enter the city only with special passes. Pavel Kirilenko, the head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, said that less than five thousand residents remain in the city.

• On the same day, British intelligence stated that the Russian leadership was faced with a choice between the task to fully occupy Donbas and the need to defend the land corridor to Crimea in Zaporizhzhia. ISW emphasized that by defending Bakhmut in Donetsk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces created conditions for a future counteroffensive.

• According to Serhiy Cherevatyi, spokesman for the AFU's Eastern Group, the enemy is suffering significant losses in the Bakhmut sector. The occupying army loses at least 50 soldiers every day, so it is forced to replenish its ranks with prisoners. He also noted: "Bakhmut is the city where the enemy pays the most attention to its attacks.

• On Sunday, February 19, the Russian army in Bakhmut organized a "sanitary" day and evacuated the dead and wounded. This was reported by the platoon commander of the 2nd assault company of the 28th separate mechanized brigade named after the Knights of the Winter Campaign, Robert Brovdi (call sign Magyar).

• On February 20, Roman Konon, Svoboda battalion lieutenant of the Ukrainian National Guard, emphasized that the enemy was continuing its attempts to capture Bakhmut. However, Russian troops are not advancing in this direction.