ISW analysts determine what Putin will encourage Lukashenko to do during his visit

Such data was published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The upcoming meeting of Russian and Belarusian presidents will take place in Minsk on December 19 - for the first time since 2019.

Lukashenko and Putin will reportedly discuss the issue of countries' integration. The Kremlin wants to use the Union State as a tool to establish Russian control over the Republic of Belarus.

Leader of Belarus has already begun to create an information base in order to avoid fulfilling the demands of the Russian counterpart.

Lukashenko emphasized that "nobody but us is ruling Belarus," and that Belarus is ready to build relations with Russia, but their ties ""should always proceed from the premise that we are a sovereign and independent state."

Experts also note that the visit should strengthen the propaganda campaign regarding the most dangerous development of hostilities - the offensive of the Russian army from Belarus in winter of 2023.

Analysts say that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin signed an unspecified document on further strengthening bilateral security ties - probably in the context of Russian-Belarusian Union State - and increasing Russian pressure on Belarus to further support Russian invasion of Ukraine.

ISW currently rates Russian invasion of Ukraine from Belarus as low but possible.

• Viktor Yagun, Major General of Ukrainian Security Service, said live on air of Espreso TV channel that if Belarusians take part in war, their last chance to preserve independence of Belarus will be destroyed.