If Ukraine hit Ivan Khurs ship, AFU can set their sights on Kalibr carriers: weekly military results

Bakhmut: history of defense, current situation, possibility of offensive 

The defense of Bakhmut was the bloodiest battle since World War II in terms of casualties and the duration of the fighting. Both sides concentrated maximum forces. The town has no real military significance. Bakhmut was important when Russians had the opportunity to attack from Izyum. When Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, the role of Bakhmut decreased significantly, but it began to acquire a certain political significance because the enemy needed a victory. 

I consider January, when the enemy captured Soledar, to be a critical moment. This should be investigated by both experts and the military. Because Russians were able to capture this city when we were rotating and one of the brigades failed to stay where it was supposed to. The capture of Soledar began to create a different dynamic, because it provided overhang on the northern flank. Then there was an advance in the south, when the enemy captured Klishchiivka. This story changed the dynamics around Bakhmut. The enemy started shelling the two main roads that supplied the city. Then, in March, it was the most difficult time - everyone was advising Ukraine to retreat from the city. Later, everything fell into place. General Syrskyi repeatedly went to Bakhmut and said that the most combat-ready Russian troops should be destroyed first. These were the forces of the Wagner PMC. The new tactics of using trained Wagner mercenaries and criminals allowed them to advance in the city. After the end of March, we held Bakhmut for two more months, although Russians were advancing in the city and on the flanks. 

Now the situation looks like this - the enemy controls the city. We still have some areas near the airplane monument near the southwestern entrance to the city and the road to Ivanivske, which is the gateway to Bakhmut. On the flanks, Ukrainian troops are trying to advance towards Berkhivka and active fighting continues in the area of Klishchiivka. The situation is mirrored - we are trying to stabilize the front line and create conditions for the destruction of Russian units that will replace Wagner (if any). We are also trying to create conditions for further offensive. 

Ukrainian brigades defending the city have fulfilled their mission. Some brigades stayed there for a long time and destroyed a significant part of Wagner forces and airborne units. The number of Russians killed and wounded was in the range of 70,000. The defense of Bakhmut enabled the Ukrainian army to prepare reserves for the spring and summer offensive. Bakhmut secured the towns beyond it - the Russian potential would have spread like gangrene. The brigades have accomplished their mission 100%.

We are overestimating the capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to conduct offensive actions in the Bakhmut area. The main thing is to stabilize the front line and secure the flanks. The enemy has moved reserves and is trying to put pressure there. There is parity in the Berkhivka area, and we are gradually advancing in Klishchiivka. Active fighting will continue on the flanks. There is a certain slowdown in the fighting now. The city center has become calmer, but the situation on the flanks is difficult. It is an exaggeration to talk about the beginning of an offensive in this area. 

Situation in other parts of the frontline

Svatove - Kreminna - Dvorichna area. The front line there has not changed, but Russians have a fairly large number of personnel there and intense fighting continues. In particular, for the last five days, everyone has been talking about Masiutivka. It's just above Svatove, where the enemy is trying to push through. It is one of the most difficult and dangerous areas of the frontline. 

In Avdiivka, the border guards reported that Russians launched chemical mixtures from copters. The battle lasted over 10 hours. The enemy suffered significant losses in both manpower and equipment. They failed to advance. In Marinka, the fighting continues, there is no advance by the Russian forces. Vuhledar - no changes. Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions - use of artillery and long-range systems to destroy Russian SAMs and bases. The period of preparation for offensive actions continues. 

Russians believe that the Zaporizhzhia direction is the most risky in terms of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' actions. Perhaps it will be so. The fortifications are aimed at defense, but the main thing is the forces and means. Despite the fact that there are 400,000 Russians, 150,000-170,000 of them are on the front lines. Given the stretch of the defense line, these forces are not enough to deter an offensive that could begin in several directions. 

Raid of the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and the Freedom of Russia Legion in the Belgorod region: Russia is forced to strengthen the frontline

There were raids by the RVC and the Freedom of Russia Legion in the Belgorod region. They were quite efficient and effective. A company tactical group was able to cross the Russian border without any obstacles and reach certain settlements. We saw a resonance. It showed that the Russian army cannot respond to such raids, it is slow. It is not going to protect its own population, because it is raising fighters, bombers and dropping bombs on its own territory. The military meaning of the raid seems to be insignificant, but in reality, these raids will matter. The three border regions (Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk) are 700 kilometers of border. To defend this territory, Russians have 17,000 troops, which may be enough for only 120 kilometers. Or they will transfer forces from other parts of the frontline. There is no other solution but to strengthen the frontline. The volunteers returned and said that they would extend the security zone to prevent shelling of Ukrainian cities. This mission is good, positive and legitimate. The question is that there should be more and more such actions.

If Ukraine attacked the Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship, it could make it impossible for Russian ships to stay in the Black Sea

The story of the strikes by naval drones on the Ivan Khrus ship is quite strange. There was a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry that three drones repelled the attack without any consequences. Yesterday, a video of the attack appeared. Perhaps there were two attacks.  What is surprising is that the distance from Odesa is over 400 km, and from the Bosphorus - 140 km. This is quite far from the Ukrainian coast. If this is our operation, it is a significant indicator. It is technologically and technically very difficult. Further, we can target not reconnaissance ships, but those carrying Kalibr missiles, which means we can make it impossible for Russian ships to be in the Black Sea.