If сonservatives, centrists fail to unite, pro-Russian forces will transform Poland beyond recognition, analyst warns

Journalist Vitaliy Portnikov stated this on Espreso TV.

"Conflicts in Polish society have also been happening for centuries. Conflicts between supporters of right-wing and left-wing views in Poland have been going on for almost a century. Conflicts between those who see Poland as an ethno-national project and those who see it as a multinational project have been going on for almost a century," he noted.

Portnikov emphasized that President Nawrocki began his speech with a quote from Roman Dmowski and cited Józef Piłsudski.

"However, these two politicians were in a conflict with each other that was much greater than the conflict between Donald Tusk and Jarosław Kaczyński — between today's Polish right-wing and centrists. To the point that after the assassination of the first president of Poland, as is known, Józef Piłsudski carried out a military coup and established in the country — practically until it disappeared from the political map of the world in 1939 — a so-called managed democracy regime, the Sanation regime," the publicist added.

He emphasized that this was connected with the fact that Polish leftists did not want to allow Polish rightists real access to power, believing that they would destroy the state project.

"And this is the reality of Polish society's existence. Maria Konopnicka spoke about two Polands on the day of the assassination of the first Polish president after the restoration of Polish statehood. Today, a representative of one Poland runs the state, and representatives of the other Poland run the government," Portnikov said.

The journalist added that the issue of stability in the state will depend on how the new parliamentary elections are held, who wins them, and what the new Polish government will be like.

"If the right returns to power, there will be one story; if they fail to return to power, it will be another story; but there is also a third story — if the Polish right, having returned to power, cannot govern without the presence of far-right political forces, whose supporters demonstrated their sympathies in the last presidential elections. Without the votes of Polish far-rightists, many of whom sincerely sympathize with Putin's regime, Karol Nawrocki would never have become president of Poland," he noted.

Portnikov stressed that this must be understood.

"And the tragedy of Polish statehood for the coming decades lies in the extent to which Polish conservatives, who adhere to an obviously anti-Russian course, are ready to challenge their natural allies who adhere to an obviously pro-Russian course. Because it may turn out that if Polish conservatives and centrists do not realize the need for an alliance among themselves, pro-Russian forces will change Poland beyond recognition, taking advantage of the struggle between these two antagonistic political camps," Portnikov said.

He pointed out that it was important that Karol Nawrocki spoke about turning Poland into a fortress country.

"And the need to shift the focus of Poles’ lives from social problems to the military budget should also become obvious to every real representative of Poland’s political elite, because Russia, especially in the current situation, will not reduce its ambitions to control the countries of Central Europe. It does not even matter whether Karol Nawrocki mentioned Ukraine in his speech or not, whether he wants to talk about Ukrainian issues or not," he believes.

In his opinion, if Ukraine does not withstand the fight against Russia, no one in the world will give a single zloty for Poland’s security.

"In fact, from the first day it becomes clear that Russia has won the fight against Ukraine, no one will be truly interested in this country anymore, because everyone will know that it is the next victim of Russian aggression, that there is no point in pouring money there, that there is no point in investing. Poles themselves will flee the country, looking for homes and apartments in Spain or France. Of course, this is already happening. Even now, Poles are buying Spanish real estate, perceiving their homeland as a place not very suitable for a peaceful life. So imagine what will happen to Poland, its economy, its society, and its future if Ukraine loses the war to Russia. Nothing good will happen," Portnikov added.

He emphasized that in that case, Karol Nawrocki will be a president who will have to lead Poles into battle, as he promised.

"The question is how far he will be able to lead them in such a situation of Russia’s strengthening and America’s indifference to such a situation, which can also happen — because we understand that Ukraine can lose the war to Russia only through America’s indifference. So, in fact, the new Polish president and the leaders of the Polish government will have to solve much more serious problems than they think," the publicist said.

He believes that only one question matters.

"How much they realize the importance of solving such tasks, and that now is not the time for political squabbles between the two Polands, but the time to focus their joint efforts so that the Polish state can survive at all. After all, the Polish state appeared on the political map of the world precisely because Józef Piłsudski and Roman Dmowski, representatives of these two antagonistic Polands, managed to unite their efforts for a short time. Perhaps if they had not risen to the occasion of these political tasks — despite all the, I would say, antipathy toward each other and the antipathy of one political camp toward the other," Portnikov stressed.

The journalist added that perhaps it would not have been so easy to restore the Polish state, and most importantly, to defend it.

"1920 was the year of the 'Miracle on the Vistula,' the victory of Polish troops over Soviet Red Army soldiers, who were already carrying in their baggage the Soviet government of Poland headed by the executioner Felix Dzerzhinsky, already appointed by Lenin. Poland faced the fate of Soviet Ukraine — it was to become Soviet Poland as part of the Soviet Union. And the Poles had 20 years — only 20 years — to create institutions of statehood independent of Moscow, which, fortunately, lasted even in the post-war period and made it possible to return to a normal independent life after the collapse of the Soviet Union," he recalled.

According to Portnikov, we simply need to realize that we are returning to a very dangerous trial, to a very dangerous era, and that Russia's war against Ukraine is part of all these trials we are only beginning to guess at.

"Let us hope that at some point we will be able to look at this situation more optimistically, and for now let us wish the new Polish president success in turning Poland into a fortress country and success in building normal Polish-Ukrainian relations — because in fact, relations between the Polish and Ukrainian peoples are necessary for both nations’ self-preservation. Yes, decades of historical problems divide them — that is true," the journalist said.

He added that we are talking not about the past, but about the future.

"If we do not find a common language in the present, neither Poles nor Ukrainians may have a common future. Instead, the Russians will. Just as happened at one time with the collapse of the state project of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the project of restoring Ukrainian statehood, which also faced serious problems in the times after Pereyaslav," Portnikov concluded.