Germany weighs Taurus missile transfer, Ukraine hits Russian defense industry. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Ukrainian Defense Forces hit Russian military-industrial complex facilities

Last night, several Russian defense industry facilities were hit. Ukrainian long-range drones successfully struck the Kronstadt plant in Dubna, northern Moscow region. This is a completely new facility built in 2022 - new workshops of the joint-stock company Kronstadt.

The facility specializes in unmanned aerial systems, producing drones such as Orion, Inokhodets, Molniya, Grom, Helios, Sirius, and various control systems.

The facility also began producing long-range strike weapons, such as the Banderol cruise missile, which Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate reported as a new low-cost missile the Russians planned to mount on the Orion drone. In fact, this weapon was also being produced at this plant.

Locals filmed multiple hits on the Kronstadt plant by Ukraine’s Liutyi drones, which struck the facility with high precision. A video also surfaced showing the aftermath, with the building’s structures bent outward - indicating an explosion occurred inside the plant.

In the same town of Dubna, another Russian facility - the Raduga plant - was struck by Ukraine's Security Service drones. It's located close to the Kronstadt plant. Raduga produces Kh-101, Kh-59, and Kh-69 cruise missiles and modernizes the Kh-32. Ukrainian Defense Forces also targeted another facility, Angstrem, in the Moscow region.

However, there's an important nuance: beyond gathering quality intelligence to identify the most vulnerable links in Russia’s production chain, the choice of weapon matters. While Kronstadt is a new and relatively fragile facility in terms of construction, Raduga is a Soviet-era complex made up of sturdier buildings. Striking such targets requires munitions with more powerful warheads than those currently used on Ukrainian drones - long-range missile systems are needed.

Germany approves new military aid for Ukraine

In this context, yesterday’s meeting in Germany was important. The President of Ukraine met with German Chancellor Merz to discuss future cooperation. Chancellor Merz said that Germany would continue its military support for Ukraine.

He announced that this year’s military aid package would total €5 billion. He also promised that Germany would help cover a large part of Ukraine’s Starlink-related costs. In addition, he said Germany and Ukraine would sign a memorandum of intent to buy long-range systems made in Ukraine — marking a new step in their partnership.

The specific models of these long-range missiles were not mentioned. Earlier, however, Bild published reports suggesting the discussion involved a missile with a range of up to 2,500 km. Ukraine currently has no such missile; its longest-range system, the Neptune, has a maximum range of just over 800 km.

In any case, it is likely that this cooperation with Germany will involve not only funding for certain Ukrainian projects, but also the transfer of specific components and equipment. This could realistically enable the development of new cruise missiles to complement Ukraine’s current arsenal.

The issue of transferring Taurus missiles was also raised, but this is unlikely to happen soon, as Germany has a limited number of them. In any case, funding new projects appears to be a more probable direction for Germany than supplying existing missile systems.

International dimensions of the Russian-Ukrainian war

Next, we’ll look at how these developments impact European, American, and Ukrainian communities — especially regarding Ukraine’s cooperation with international partners and Russia’s actions on the frontline.

We spoke with Oleksiy Yizhak, an expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and founder of the Consortium for Defense Information, which brings together several Ukrainian analytical groups. We asked whether President Zelenskyy’s visit to Germany shows that Europe is becoming more united in its response to Russia. We also discussed whether Germany is stepping up as a European leader by setting an example and providing what both Europe and Ukraine need most right now.

"If we add to this list the fact that Germany has activated the permanent basing of the brigade in Lithuania against the backdrop of another Russian threat, then I can say yes. Germany's policy has changed significantly, and in this sense, it has already felt like a European leader that has to ensure, among other things, the collective security interests within the EU and Europe in general. I can't say that Germany is the only country like this. The good thing is that there are a number of countries in Europe that see themselves as European leaders, ready to join forces and find constructive solutions despite all the problems that still exist with the United States in the face of the Russian threat," he said.

Oleksiy Yizhak noted that in addition to Germany, these are Poland, the United Kingdom and France.

"At least these countries are leading Europe in a direction where it is becoming more capable of defending itself. And what is being said and declared by Germany now, there is still a usual political element. There is an impression that the Russians, after some attempts to convince them of something, including by the most loyal Western politician to Russia, such as Donald Trump, are still more inclined to continue the war, organize a new major offensive and try to get what they have not yet gained through military force. And against this background, such statements and actions by Germany increase uncertainty for Russia, especially against the backdrop of the NATO summit that is coming up. Thus, it contributes to peace, even if the actual deliveries and material aspect of these statements will not be so big and fast," the analyst believes.

Merz mentioned a memorandum that should outline the terms of a possible ceasefire and other conditions. He said, “Moscow wants to buy time, and we’re still waiting for the memorandum that Russia promised to present last week — but it hasn’t appeared.” This raises the question: what kind of game is Russia playing with this memorandum?

According to Oleksiy Yizhak, “Russia seems to be trying to keep Donald Trump and some pro-Russian politicians on its side. But at the same time, it’s afraid to clearly state its position. There’s still room for negotiation, especially considering how things have unfolded. Initially, the U.S. said it would negotiate directly with Russia. Then it became clear they weren’t fully prepared and began reaching out to European partners, Xi Jinping, and Recep Erdogan. Later, they warned of a possible truce — or else more sanctions. But that was also walked back.”

“Now, this memorandum has become the final line,” Yizhak explains. “There’s no more room for delay. The memorandum must either be realistic or not. As Trump told Putin, it needs to be credible. And Putin reportedly acknowledged that Trump asked for it to be realistic. So now, Russia is trying to shape the memorandum in a way that Trump can later call ‘unrealistic’ — a move to shift blame or stall progress.”

In his view, Russia still seems to want to return to the demands it made back in December 2021—before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“They want to repeat those same documents, but they’re still afraid,” he said. “Meanwhile, the U.S. has stated that Ukraine presented its own proposals during direct talks. But so far, we’ve only seen leaks about what’s in the Russian memorandum. Based on reports like those from Reuters, it looks like Russia hasn’t changed its position. And judging by the increased drone attacks and buildup of troops, they are still preparing for another major offensive.”

This suggests that political solutions to end the war remain unrealistic for now. Russia is likely to continue its offensive operations — or at least try — through the summer. Only in the fall might Ukraine enter a new phase of more realistic negotiations, possibly involving both European and American partners.

"We see preparations for a large, possibly hybrid offensive, and we see that Russian information channels have been launched. On the other hand, there are counter-channels saying that we need to get ready, drones are flying, troops are being concentrated. But it is very difficult to imagine such an operation by the Russians, because they do not have the forces to succeed quickly. Imagine such an operation against the backdrop of the NATO summit, which is coming in less than a month, when Donald Trump will be in Europe. And it is not known how Russia can play here. Decisions may be made that have never been made before if Russia tries to conduct a major military operation against the backdrop of such a large European transatlantic gathering," the expert said.

At the same time, the analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies noted that if the operation does not begin before the NATO summit, it is unknown what will be decided at the event and what the conditions will be.

"Perhaps Russia will not dare to do so at all. Moscow is now demonstrating that it wants to fight because it does not know how to end the war. It considers the cessation of hostilities a loss. This is what it has been telling Ukraine in direct negotiations. They want Ukraine's surrender while the fighting continues. But how will they do this, given that the uncertainty for Russia is increasing due to European and American arms supplies and authorizations? Against the backdrop of the fact that even Donald Trump's decisions may be unexpected for Russia. And the upcoming NATO summit is a very important event for European security, so it is not known when they will decide to do such an operation," the analyst said.

Oleksiy Yizhak explained whether Ukraine can expect the U.S. to make decisions that would let it buy American weapons using European money. He also discussed whether Congress or Trump might choose to send military aid to Ukraine on their own.

"I don't think they have their own packages, but something very important is happening in the defense industry community. First, in terms of the formation of the new budget for the next year starting in September. A certain game has been played there and it has been agreed upon in terms of financing various defense programs, including new technology companies and old ones, as well as fifth-generation fighters and work on sixth-generation fighters. And judging by the fact that Europe has taken such a step to further arm Ukraine, it seems that certain compromises have been reached with the United States regarding the rearmament of Europe itself. If you look at it very crudely, when Donald Trump was running for the presidency for the second time, they actually said this: “Europeans should pay more for defense, and this money should be used to buy American weapons.” The Europeans, of course, said that if they were to spend more on defense, it would be on European weapons," the expert noted.

But, as it turned out, the defense industry capacities of Europeans are not that great.

"I think something very important is happening here, which opens the way for the rearmament of Europe with the participation of the Americans. This means that all the weapons that will be replaced now, Ukraine has a high chance of getting these weapons. And now we are hearing the first such signals that relatively old but very effective Taurus missiles, however many there are, may get to Ukraine, and perhaps not only that," Oleksiy Yizhak believes.

He also clarified whether the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine is still possible, despite various estimates that Germany will not transfer these weapons, precisely because of the small number of these missiles needed by the Bundeswehr and NATO.

"I wouldn't say that there are few of them, even if it is estimated that 100-200 of 600 are in good condition, they have been modernized and re-equipped. 100 Taurus missiles means a few dozen, maybe three missiles per target, okay, let's assume that the efficiency is not perfect, but three missiles per target means a few dozen targets such as bridges, airfields, protected bunkers. This is a concrete-piercing missile, perhaps the only one in the West. It was created based on the experience of the Cold War. The fact that Germany had to take part in stopping a major Soviet offensive, that is, destroying the rear echelons and their logistics.

From the point of view of destroying the logistics of a major Russian offensive, even 100 missiles is a very significant additional uncertainty for Russia. Plus, other weapons are an additional uncertainty. So I don't rule out that if Russia does launch such a large offensive, the Taurus missiles could quickly end up in Ukraine. But again, let's see whether Russia will actually dare to conduct such a large offensive, which it announces through its various sources and its behavior," said Oleksiy Yizhak, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies.