For Russia, situation in Bakhmut is particularly vulnerable

This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War.

"The Russian informational response to the capture of Bakhmut has thus far focused on competing for responsibility for the victory rather than discussing the resulting military situation," the report says.

The hyper-focus on claims of victory in Bakhmut diverts attention from the volatile military situation for Russia in and around the city, emphasizing the influence of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin on the Russian information space.

"The Russian military situation in Bakhmut is particularly vulnerable as the Russian offensive effort in the area has likely culminated, granting Ukrainian forces the opportunity to launch further counterattacks on Bakhmut’s already-weakened flanks," the analysts say.

Wagner's withdrawal from the city is also likely to lead to the Russian Defense Ministry manning the defensive lines with poorly trained and supplied units, similar to those that retreated from their positions to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in May, the Institute believes.

Instead, the Russian information space largely ignores these vulnerabilities.

ISW reminded that earlier, Russian ultranationalist Igor Girkin complained that Russia's focus on capturing Bakhmut was a "strategic failure" that led to an "unnecessary and Pyrrhic victory." Girkin criticized Prigozhin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov for prolonging the effort to take Bakhmut and distracting them from preparing for the defense against a future counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces.

• On May 20, the leader of the Russian Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, released a video with a statement about the alleged complete occupation of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut by Russians. In response, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar said that there were heavy battles in Bakhmut and the situation was critical. At the same time, Ukrainian troops are holding the defense in the Litak district.

• The Ukrainian General Staff's evening (May 20) and morning (May 21) reports mentioned the ongoing battle for the city. The Russian Defense Ministry announced the capture of the city at midnight on May 21. 

• On May 21, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had taken Bakhmut in a semi-circumscribed position, which makes it possible to destroy Russians, Russians in the controlled part of the city have to defend themselves. On the same day, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of the Land Forces, said that Ukrainian soldiers were advancing along the flanks in the suburbs of Bakhmut and were actually approaching the city's tactical encirclement.  And the spokesman for the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhiy Cherevaty, emphasized that Ukrainian defenders advanced by about 200 meters in some areas near Bakhmut on Sunday. In addition, they continue to hold the southwestern part of the city.

• On May 22, the spokesperson for the Eastern Military Group, Serhiy Cherevaty, said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had advanced even further near Bakhmut over the day, by 200 to 400 meters.

• On the morning of May 23, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Russian troops were on the offensive in the Bakhmut direction. And the fighting for the city of Bakhmut continues.