Drone incident will not lead to direct conflict between Russia and US - American analysts
ISW analysts believe that the incident with the US MQ-9 Reaper drone in the Black Sea will not escalate a direct conflict between the United States and the Russian Federation
The Institute for the Study of War reports about this.
It is noted that US General James B. Hecker stated that two Russian Su-27 aircraft hit the drone nearly causing both aircraft to crash and resulting in the loss of the drone. Instead, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed that the drone crashed due to “sharp maneuvering”.
Experts believe that the drone incident will not lead to a direct conflict between Russia and the United States.
"The incident will not cause an escalation to direct conflict between Russia and the US. Russian forces have used coercive signaling against US and allied flights and naval vessels for decades in multiple theaters without triggering conflict," the Institute writes.
The presidents of the United States and Russia retain full freedom to choose how to respond to such incidents, and in such situations, there is nothing automatic about escalation, analysts emphasize.
"Given President Joe Biden’s repeated commitments to avoid committing US forces to direct conflict with Russia and the Kremlin’s clear and repeatedly demonstrated reluctance to get into a war with NATO, there is no reason for incidents such as these to cause dangerous escalations," the Institute added.
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Earlier, Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov said after the incident with the collision and downing of an American MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea that Moscow does not want a confrontation with the United States, but "American aircraft have no business being near the Russian border."
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