Compromise on Ukraine's membership likely to be announced at NATO summit – Kyiv Security Forum

This is stated in a publication of the Kyiv Security Forum.

"Although most of the allies have openly declared their support for Ukraine's NATO membership, there is no consensus on inviting the country into Alliance during the Vilnius summit. Washington is among those who take a more cautious and conservative position. And many allies are guided by it," the statement says. 

The Forum points out that nuclear blackmail by the Russian Federation has a major impact on the final decision.

"Our friends in NATO are aware of this, and, moreover, they are calling, as, for example, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, not to succumb to Russia's 'terrorist intimidation' and not to use the issue of security guarantees to 'dilute' the discussion of Ukraine's membership in NATO," the publication says.

"Given the realities, the decisions of the NATO summit are likely to include a compromise position that will confirm Ukraine's membership prospects, but postpone the adoption of an official invitation in one form or another for the future," predicts the Kyiv Security Forum.

Ukraine's path to NATO membership:

Ukraine hopes to receive clear decisions on joining the Alliance in July during the NATO meeting in Vilnius. On May 23, Ukraine's ambassador to NATO, Natalia Galibarenko, mentioned that Ukraine is preparing two cooperation packages (political and practical), which will be presented for discussion during the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius. 

On May 30, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba outlined three key points that define Ukraine's vision for a successful outcome at the NATO summit in Vilnius. "Strengthen Ukraine-NATO institutional ties and assistance. Take a step toward UA membership. Provide security guarantees on Ukraine’s path to NATO." 

On June 10, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Volodymyr Havrylov, expressed his belief that the July NATO summit in Vilnius  will set the algorithm for Ukraine's accession to the Alliance.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg confirmed that Ukraine will become a NATO member in the future, but due to the ongoing war, specific dates for accession cannot be determined. However, he is confident that during the Vilnius summit, the member countries will work towards finding a solution regarding Ukraine's progress.

On June 15, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling for Ukraine's membership in NATO with 425 votes in favor. 

On June 16, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on NATO chief Stoltenberg to drop the Membership Action Plan (MAP) if Ukraine joins NATO.