China's special representative for the Ukrainian issue, an experienced diplomat with a very interesting surname for Ukrainians, Li Hui, travels around the world asking for “a solution to the Ukrainian crisis.” That it is necessary to sit down at the negotiating table and urgently seek a political solution to the hostilities. The visits also take place amid good news that Patriot in the hands of our air defense specialists can shoot down Kinzhal missiles. And also when Joe Biden and the State Department said out loud that the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine was the number one priority.
That's why the clouds are gathering around China - and this very confident country has begun to look for benefits for itself from the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. After all, the United States and Joe Biden announced a plan back in January to cut China off from access to modern technology and the global economy.
That's why when Li Hui visited last week, he suggested that Zelenskyy 'start with himself' for 'peace talks.' And when he got the expected negative response, he went to negotiate with the first economy of the European Union, France, with which China has a great trade turnover.
Why is Xi Jinping trying so hard to organize a convenient peace without a clear victory for Ukraine right now? The fact is that China is directly involved in the outbreak of the current war - on February 4, 2022, Putin went to Beijing to receive his blessing. For China, the war in Ukraine was interesting as a kind of simulator - what would happen if they decided to attack and conquer Taiwan. However, in the first weeks of the war, things did not go according to Russia's original plan, and China took a long pause to think about further plans. And finally, on the anniversary of the large-scale invasion, China matured and came out with a 12-step 'peace plan' that said nothing substantial.
But the Chinese are well aware of what French President Emmanuel Macron recently said: “China has lost this war geopolitically,” so Beijing has decided to implement a 'plan B'. Its essence is to ensure that Russia does not lose outright and in the process becomes as dependent on Beijing as possible. This is exactly what China has been doing so far with 200% success - just the other day there was a very telling news story about how the Russian port of Vladivostok became an 'internal Chinese port.' And this is no joke.
Next, China is the best at helping Russia economically, from buying millions of barrels of oil to trading in various sanctioned double basses.
What does Beijing want from Ukraine? It is 100% certain that the Chinese government will never call the current bloodshed in Ukraine a war and will never publicly name Russia as the aggressor. However, there is a small silver lining to Moscow's complete vassalage to China. Despite the fact that Xi Jinping has not called or written to Volodymyr Zelenskyy for many months, he has repeatedly emphasized the inadmissibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. And indeed, after the Russian government gave up its ports to China for money, the threats to nuke Warsaw, London, and Berlin abruptly stopped. Because now China, as the ultimate beneficiary of the Russian Federation, will decide the fate of nuclear weapons. And it is possible that Xi Jinping believes that Russian nuclear weapons are an addition to Chinese security.
On the other hand, there are a number of countries that have serious economic ties with China and are neither cold nor hot about Ukraine's problems. China needs to show what kind of peacekeepers it is, and this is how the idea of the mission of Mr. Li Hui, an experienced Sino-Soviet ambassador, was born.
This dove of peace's tour of the European Union is nothing more than an attempt to break the unity of the United States and Europe. After all, conventional France or Germany are currently experiencing an acute crisis after the disruption of cheap energy trade with Russia and are not too eager to sit on the US gas needle. And on top of that, they will once again be 100% dependent on Washington's security guarantees. Therefore, China is very eager to play on the feeling of chaos, fear, and provide a financial alibi for the EU countries, which cunningly circumvent US recommendations to cut ties with the authoritarian regime. In general, the game of 'peace plan' for Ukraine is beneficial to the participants, as France and Germany may not close their Chinese factories, because, they say, Beijing does not support Russia and is generally for peace. This is pure realpolitik, but it is what it is.
China benefits from a suspended state of war, as it is now, when Russia's defeat is not obvious. When Putin's elite can wave new territorial conquests. And when Western companies will be afraid to make any investments here for a long time. This is where Beijing's plan for the future emerges: to wait for disagreements between our government and the US and EU that will inevitably arise when the question of joining the EU and NATO actually comes up. And then there will be a Chinese attempt to give the authorities money and set up their businesses here. And then they will also use the territory of Ukraine as a transit to control their big money in Europe.
It is very telling that amid all these geopolitical movements of China, the 100-year-old strategist of modern US policy, Henry Kissinger, who actually gave birth to China in its current form, has reappeared in the media. This influential politician has been a lobbyist for Chinese issues for many years, and he issued a very interesting statement: that Ukraine should be in NATO. But Crimea should be retained by Russia so as not to offend it at all. And the key point is from his essay for The Economist:
“For the security of Europe, it is better to have Ukraine in NATO, where it cannot make national decisions on territorial claims.” That is, let's take Ukraine into the security bloc, otherwise it will seek revenge and return to the 1991 borders.
When Special Envoy for Peace Li Hui came to Ukraine, he obviously hinted at something similar to Zelenskyy. That we should forget about a few territories and think about peace. Indirect evidence of this is the statement by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba that “trade in Ukrainian territories is unacceptable.”
China is thinking about its survival and status after a potential war with Taiwan. Trade with Europe is very important to it, and that is why the country is now actively developing a railroad in Pakistan and talking about trade routes through the Arctic. The fact is that Beijing is well aware of options to circumvent the blocking of sea trade routes if the fight for Taiwan does begin. Therefore, in order to save itself, China can easily offer the Ukrainian authorities to fish in muddy waters. We should absolutely not agree to them, given that we receive money and weapons directly from the United States, China's main enemy.
What to do next and in what form Ukraine will survive will become clear only in the fall, following the results of this year's active military campaign. By then, we must clearly decide what kind of future we want - NATO and the EU or floundering in a non-aligned swamp for Chinese money for another 30 years.
China, on the other hand, has clearly defined its desires. For them, there is only China and nothing else. Beijing has clearly set a course to subdue Eurasia, and the rest of the small stuff is not important and can be erased or bought in bulk.
Therefore, there is only one conclusion: we can sell grain and corn to China. But to play China's games in an attempt to outplay the West and not implement the promised reforms is not.
Money from authoritarian regimes always ends in great grief for Ukraine. Yanukovych once tried to make friends with Russia and China. It ended in the occupation of Crimea and a war for decades to come.
Specially for Espreso
About the author. Maryna Danyliuk-Yarmolaieva, journalist, columnist for Espreso.
The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.