Ukraine finds new markets in EU, U.S., Canada as Poland blocks its trucks — economist

Andrii Yarmak, economist from the investment department of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), said this in an interview for the program European Space with Yuriy Fizer on Espreso TV.

"Poles have a rather nostalgic attitude toward Ukrainian agriculture. Traditionally, all Polish farmers, probably more than anyone else in the world, are most afraid of Ukrainian agricultural products.

Similarly, when Poland was a candidate for EU accession, German farmers were afraid of Polish products. So, this is an absolutely normal process—when someone is afraid of competition. But there are no real threats to Poland from Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine and Poland are ideal partners," Yarmak emphasized.

According to the economist, if you look at the structure of Poland's agricultural exports, the country mainly earns from exporting milk, meat, and eggs—that is, products with high added value. In contrast, Ukraine mainly exports feed grains, feed components, and oilseeds, which are later processed for feed production. Accordingly, the cheaper Poland can buy feed components, the more it will earn from exporting its own products. Therefore, it is beneficial for Poland to stimulate the import of cheap raw materials from Ukraine. "As for the protests—they have no real basis. They can only be explained by a lack of understanding and information. Because from a market perspective, there are no objective reasons for discontent.

How does the agricultural market work? How does the grain market work? Regardless of whether you close the border with Ukraine or not—the result will be the same. We have already seen this: after mass protests, the Polish government, contrary to the EU's decision, simply banned the import of agricultural products from Ukraine, including grain. Polish farmers were very satisfied at the time, but grain prices in Poland continued to fall," Yarmak noted.

The economist added that the grain market is global. A ban on imports from one country will not affect domestic prices, as grain will come from other sources. Ukrainian grain will go to other countries, where it will further lower prices, so the global price will remain unchanged or even decrease. Therefore, there are no objective fundamental reasons for such discontent.

"For example, regarding raspberries: Polish protests were directed against the import of frozen raspberries from Ukraine, allegedly because it reduces demand for local products. But the point is that Polish importers buy Ukrainian raspberries, sort them, package them, add a markup, and earn more than Ukrainian processors. That is, most of the profit remains in Poland. When road blockades began, it became difficult to work—Poland lost its status as a reliable partner. Everyone started looking for ways around. And what happened? Poles lost about $10 million in profit just on raspberries. They lost their positions in the world market—Ukraine overtook them, since previously Poles exported Ukrainian raspberries as their own. Now this money stays in Ukraine. Ukraine invests in product processing and gets a higher price in markets where Poland previously dominated—Germany, France, the Czech Republic, and other EU countries.

And in such premium markets as the USA and Canada, Ukraine has even surpassed Poland in the volume of frozen raspberry supplies," Yarmak summarized.

Court upheld the ban on protests

On May 13, the Lublin Court of Appeal upheld the ban on holding rallies at the Polish-Ukrainian border. It is known that Judge Dorota Janicka noted that, after analyzing the case, the court concluded that the ban on the rally was justified.

The court said that the protesters, in their application for the rally, referred to the concept of a "citizens' assembly," but in fact aimed to block the roads.