Russia is currently deploying its military aviation in Belarus. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that the deployment of the Russian air force will take place as part of joint exercises that will begin on January 16. It is also noted that all Belarusian airfields will be used, but the number of equipment that Russia should transfer to Belarus is not specified. Also, ground military exercises continue in Belarus and the transfer of Russian-mobilized soldiers to this country continues. Ukrainian General Staff continues to assert that there are no signs of the formation of a strike force by Russian troops yet, but Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready for any surprises from Russia.
In the current situation in the territory of Belarus, details are very important. That is why we will try to analyze the current situation and threats from the territory of Belarus with the head of the White Legion Sergei Bulba.
Sergei Bulba stated, during the air exercises in Belarus, the Russian forces will use the Luninets and Zyabrovka airfields. So, this should not be a surprise. As they have been actively using these airfields since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. The distance from the military Zyabrovka airfield to the border with Ukraine is 30 km and from Luninets is more than 40 km. The Belarusian public figure stressed that these airports are an excellent target for Ukrainian Himars MLRS and for the barrel artillery. After all, the distance is very small. Bulba also said that the activity of Russian aviation is constantly observed at the military Machulishchy airbase, particularly, helicopters and planes.
Russian long-range fighter interceptor MiG-31
Sergei Bulba believes that the information about the deployment of S-300 air defense systems at the Zyabrovka airport should be treated ambiguously. Since these systems are of different modifications. Russia exported from the territory of Belarus systems that can reach the target at a distance of 300 km.
So, He claims even if Russia deploys S-300 systems for provocations, they will be modifications that can hit a target at a distance of no more than 70 km. Bulba stated S-300 systems with a range of 300 km were deployed closer to Minsk. After all, the stock of missiles for these complexes is running out. Back in the summer, a joint statement by the Belarusian and Russian authorities stated that S-300, S-400 and Iskander air defense systems had been deployed to the territory of Belarus. However, the exact number of these air defense systems on the territory of Belarus is unknown.
Military historian Roman Ponomarenko believes, the battle for Bakhmut is most similar to the Battle of Verdun. Then German troops stormed the French front for more than 10 months. The German army was defeated and suffered huge losses. Ponomarenko claims this is exactly what is happening now near Bakhmut. The battles for the city have been going on for more than 6 months. The Russian army has attracted huge forces to capture Bakhmut, but so far there has been no success. During this period, the city lost its strategic importance to the Russian forces, which it had in the summer. So, according to the historian, even having captured the city of Bakhmut, will not be a good result for the Russian army. Because the Ukrainian front will not collapse and the fighting will continue.
Fighting in the East of Ukraine as of the beginning of January
Roman Ponomarenko is convinced that the Russian command is drawing conclusions and changing tactics in the war against Ukraine. First of all, it concerns mobilization. During the first wave of mobilization, the military was thrown to the front without any preparation and it did not help to change the situation at the front. In Russia, mobilization continues. The historian believes that it will continue in Russia and it is necessary to prepare for the fact that the mobilized will be better trained. They will not be immediately sent to the front line but will be more seriously prepared for fighting against the Ukrainian army.