After Prigozhin's mutiny, Wagner PMC will no longer fight in Ukraine - Ukrainian intelligence

The head of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, said this in a comment to a Ukrainian outlet.

According to him, Wagner PMC has destroyed the myth of the Russian regime's steadfastness.

"The Russian leadership has been compromised. The myth of the Russian regime's steadfastness has been destroyed once again. The Russian Aerospace Forces suffered losses. Moreover, Wagner PMC will no longer participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. And this is Russia’s most effective unit that knows how to succeed at any cost," he said.

Later, Andriy Yusov, a representative of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence, told Ukrinform that Budanov's statement had a serious basis.

"Of course, the statement of the Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine is based on specific information received from various sources and on the relevant analysis of this information. And, of course, the consequences of these events (Prigozhin's mutiny - ed.) for the Putin regime will be long-lasting and devastating," he said.

Answering the question of whether Prigozhin's mutiny will affect the course of the war in Ukraine, Yusov said that in the long run, yes.

Prigozhin's mutiny could lead to reorganization of key positions or even lead to reprisals  within the Russian establishment and military and political leadership.

Prigozhin's mutiny in Russia

The conflict between Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defence continued for several months, but the situation escalated sharply on the evening of 23 June.

Allegedly, Russian troops launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow after the Russian leadership refused to hand over Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

On Saturday, June 24, in addition to Rostov-on-Don, where they initially gathered around the headquarters of the Southern Military District, the Wagner group also took control of Voronezh. Their convoys, which had diverted from the Ukrainian border, were moving towards Moscow. Military aircraft and artillery under Shoigu's control attempted to stop them. The units of Wagner PMC were last spotted in the Lipetsk region. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

Instead, Prigozhin announced that the Wagner group had stopped their advance and returned to their field camps before reaching 200 km from Moscow. He stated, "In a day, we covered a long distance, stopping only 200 km away from Moscow. During this time, no blood was shed. However, the moment may come when blood will be spilled. Therefore, taking full responsibility, we are turning our columns around and heading back to the field camps as planned."

Subsequently, Prigozhin and all his fighters left the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would close the criminal case against him.

On June 26, Russian media reported that the leader of PMC Wagner remained under investigation in the case of organizing a coup in Russia, despite the Kremlin's statements about closing the case.

On the same day, Putin gave a speech in which he offered the Wagner PMC fighters three options for future actions: join the Russian Defense Forces, go to Belarus with other PMC members, or return to their families.

Meanwhile, Wagner leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said that the main goal of the mutiny was "to prevent the destruction of the Wagner PMC, not to overthrow the government" and called it a "march of justice." He also claimed that the offensive on Moscow had stopped because the mercenaries "did not want to shed much blood."

On June 27, the Federal Security Service of Russia announced the termination of a criminal case on armed rebellion involving the leader of Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Wagner mercenaries would hand over heavy equipment to the regular Russian army.

On the same day, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus confirmed Yevgeny Prigozhin arrived in the country. According to him, the Wagner fighters who arrived with him will not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed there.

Read more on the events here.