Ukraine ceasefire could increase Russian threat to Baltics, ministers warn

Financial Times writes about this.

“We all understand that when the war in Ukraine will be stopped, Russia will redistribute its forces very quickly,” said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur. “That means also the threat level will increase significantly very quickly.”

Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė echoed the concern, warning that Moscow would “speed up its military capabilities” after a ceasefire. She added, “Let’s not lie to ourselves that Russia is going to be done after Ukraine.”

The Trump administration is leading ceasefire talks, with Ukraine agreeing to a Black Sea truce and a 30-day pause, while Russia has only pledged to halt attacks on energy infrastructure if Western sanctions are lifted.

Baltic officials fear Russia will use the break to boost its army to 1.5 million troops and double forces near Finland and the Baltics. Pevkur estimates that half of Russia’s 600,000 troops in Ukraine could be redeployed. “These men will not go back to different parts of Russia to harvest the corn,” he said.

Adding to concerns, Russia’s massive Zapad military drills, simulating a NATO conflict, are set for this autumn near the Baltics.

Ministers also rejected NATO plans to move troops to a European “reassurance force” in Ukraine. “We cannot jeopardise the security of the eastern flank of NATO,” Pevkur stressed.

Baltic security currently relies on NATO deployments: Germany in Lithuania, Canada in Latvia, and the UK in Estonia. British Defense Secretary John Healey reassured, “That consistent ironclad commitment to Estonia will continue.”