Trump's assassination attempt: impact on 2024 US election

Contents

1. Attempted assassination of Trump at an election rally: details
2. How Trump's ratings have changed after the assassination attempt
3. How the attempted assassination of Trump could affect the election race and the US election

Attempted assassination of Trump at an election rally: details

Photo: Getty Images

On Saturday, July 13, an assassination attempt was made on US presidential candidate Donald Trump during a rally in the US state of Pennsylvania. The bullet fired at him lightly touched the politician and hit a person behind him. The bullet passed near Trump's right ear, slightly hitting it. Meanwhile, two other protesters were injured by subsequent shots.

The 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, who carried out the shooting, was killed by a sniper from the US Secret Service counter-assault team that protects Trump as a former president and as an official presidential candidate. Interestingly, the shooter, Crooks, was officially registered as a supporter of the Republican Party, which Donald Trump represents.

Analyzing the video footage, photographs, and satellite images, Associated Press journalists noted that Crooks and his rifle were able to get so close to the scene—less than 150 meters away. From this distance, a good shooter could easily hit a human-sized target. They also consider the incident a "colossal failure" of the Secret Service.

Meanwhile, the Inspector General of the US Department of Homeland Security announced the launch of an investigation into the work of the Secret Service on the day of the assassination attempt. The purpose of the investigation is to assess the procedures of the United States Secret Service "to ensure the security of former President Trump's election event on July 13, 2024."

As the Guardian wrote on the same day, social media was instantly flooded with exaggerations, lies, conspiracy theories, and misinformation after the assassination attempt. Comments ranged from right-wing speculation that Biden had personally instigated the assassination to left-wing speculation that it was a hoax to boost Trump's approval ratings.

Meanwhile, Trump made his first public appearance after the assassination attempt during the Republican Party convention, where he was officially nominated as a candidate. He announced his candidate for vice president, Senator James David Vance, who opposed aid to Ukraine. Vance stated that Ukraine's needs for soldiers and ammunition were too great, so neither Ukraine nor its allies could provide them. He suggested that the US should talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the war in Ukraine.

How Trump's ratings have changed after the assassination attempt

Photo: reuters

A poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos showed that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a slight advantage among registered voters: 43% against 41% for the current US President Joe Biden. According to the outlet, this indicates that the assassination attempt on Trump did not cause serious changes in voter sentiment.

The Times recalls its poll conducted on the eve of the assassination attempt, which already showed that Donald Trump was ahead of Joe Biden in key swing states. In particular, since March, the former president's advantage over the incumbent has increased in all seven swing states. It now ranges from 1% in Michigan to 7% in Arizona.

CBS News also reported on July 16 that Trump was leading in the polls, but with a slight advantage. Their poll showed that former President Donald Trump maintains a slight lead over President Biden in all states where elections will be held.

How the attempted assassination of Trump could affect the US election campaign and elections

Photo: YouTube

The situation with the attempted assassination of Donald Trump will definitely play into his hands, says diplomat and former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko.

"One American observer said that they were aiming for Trump and hit Biden—that's the figurative conclusion of what happened. Of course, he will use this case to the fullest. And it is obvious that this will harm the Democrats, although it is clear that they are not the initiators of all these horrors. But these are the rules of political struggle, there is nothing you can do," Volodymyr Ohryzko emphasizes for Espreso. "This is a kind of pass that just flies right at you. So, you have to be a completely wrong political animal not to take advantage of it.”

Meanwhile, the expert also notes the positive position of Joe Biden, who has no plans to back down and says he is ready for a debate in September. At the same time, when asked whether there are likely moments that could affect Trump's ratings, the diplomat notes that this could be due to an indictment in one of the three high-profile cases currently underway against the former American president and presidential candidate.

"A conditional indictment of Trump could definitely reduce his rating. But whether it will overshadow the current attempted assassination, I have more doubts," he explains. "Right now, he is a kind of hero who says 'I'm not giving up.’ And this has become, perhaps, his second slogan after his 'Make America Great Again' slogan. People like it when you get shot at and you get up and say, 'I'm still going to do what I want to do.' That should really appeal to the average voter.”

Oleksandr Kraiev, an expert at the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism, also believes that Donald Trump will make the most of the assassination attempt to improve his ratings ahead of the election.

"Trump is already using the assassination attempt to his advantage. His rating rose by 1.5% after this. So in fact, Trump is already benefiting from this assassination attempt. Although, indeed, this event is terrible and I see no reason to look for conspiracy theories in this now. However, he is now using it to his advantage. Now bookmakers are already giving 70% for Trump's victory," says Kraiev.

The expert also notes that after the assassination attempt, Trump will further promote his image as a martyr for the future of the United States, and at the same time increase his chances of winning.

Meanwhile, Eugene Czolij, Honorary Consul of Ukraine in Montreal and President of the Ukrainian World Congress (2008-2018), believes that the attempted assassination of Donald Trump will not affect the outcome of the US presidential election. He expressed this opinion almost immediately after the assassination attempt.

"I think that Trump's chances will be decided on the basis of the subsequent election campaign. Because he still has to attend the Republican Party conventions. There will also be conventions of the Democratic Party. We should not forget that there will be another debate before the election. So, in my opinion, everything is still ahead," Czolij explains his position to Espreso.

At the same time, Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy, notes that the assassination attempt on Trump confirms the trend that has been evident for the past year and a half or two, that the United States is moving toward total internal escalation.

"I've said before that the specter of civil strife has been roaming the United States for months now, and it can be either killed or fueled. No wonder directors have managed to make several films about the 'civil war'" he adds.

In his opinion, there are several recipes for changing the situation. And the main key is in the hands of the current head of the White House.