Trump, Iran, nuclear weapons

In 2015, speaking at the White House, U.S. President Barack Obama announced "historic agreements": the nuclear deal with Iran — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The Iranian regime had been developing its nuclear program for decades and already had thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges before Obama took office. Diplomacy and tough Western economic sanctions convinced Tehran to agree to the deal.

Iran committed to limiting uranium enrichment and reducing its stockpiles, allowing international inspectors to verify compliance, and granting access to undeclared sites. In return, the U.S. and other countries agreed to ease sanctions by unfreezing $150 billion of Iranian funds held in banks worldwide.

Obama stated that Iran fulfilled all its commitments — dangerous materials were destroyed, and inspections increased.

During the presidential campaign, Donald Trump called it "the worst deal in history," claiming that Iran was using the money gained from eased sanctions to finance its terrorist activities in the Middle East.

After becoming U.S. president following Obama, Trump withdrew from the deal. Along with Saudi Arabia (Trump’s wealthy favorite allies), he imposed sanctions on Iran — this happened in 2018.

By 2019, Iran had increased uranium enrichment to 60% — close to the level needed to develop nuclear weapons.

At that time, Obama criticized Trump: "Without the nuclear deal, the U.S. could later face a losing choice — between an Iran with nuclear weapons or another war in the Middle East."

Obama added, "We will face a choice — to live with this threat or go to war to prevent it."

Returning to the U.S. presidency in 2025, Trump energetically pursued a new nuclear deal with Iran. It turned out that the sanctions he had imposed did not force Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons development or support for terrorist groups. On the contrary, nuclear weapons development accelerated, as did support for Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, to whom Iran supplies missiles, drones, and military instructors.

In response, Iran began to stall, feigning readiness for negotiations. Russia is doing much the same, with no intention to end the war in Ukraine but convincing Trump otherwise through showpiece talks.

Putin promised to act as a mediator in the deal, and Trump trusts and sympathizes with him despite everything. However, neither Trump nor, even more so, Putin convinced Tehran.

Taking advantage of the situation Trump created by breaking Obama’s deal but failing to secure his own, Israel went to war with Iran.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, whose government is in political crisis, has long promised Israelis that he would not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. This has been a central slogan throughout his political career.

For Israel, the timing is favorable not only because of Trump’s failed policy but also due to the weakening of Iran’s allies. Lebanon’s Hezbollah is disoriented by “pager explosions,” Iran’s air defenses have been destroyed, and the collapse of Iran’s key regional ally — the Assad regime in Syria — has left Iran with significantly reduced capacity to protect its nuclear sites.

Trump, of course, claims that Iran is now begging for a deal and urges the signing of a new one to save lives. Although the U.S. administration previously discouraged Netanyahu from striking Iran, Trump wouldn’t be Trump if he didn’t take credit for others’ successes.

Now, the U.S. president, who takes pride in the fact that the country is not involved in any wars under his leadership, faces a choice: whether to intervene militarily to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons or to continue pushing for a deal.

Will Iran agree to a new nuclear deal? The country’s economy is in crisis: inflation exceeds 32%, unemployment is rising, and the national currency has plummeted to a historic low.

Another key factor is the lack of trust in the U.S. Iranian officials remember the fate of Obama’s deal, which Iran had complied with until the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018.

The result was the reinstatement of sanctions and a devastated Iranian economy. For Ayatollah Khamenei, this confirmed the belief that the U.S. is an unreliable negotiating partner.

Meanwhile, as Israel continues its attacks, Iran has canceled the sixth round of nuclear talks scheduled for June 15 in Oman, between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, who is also tasked with ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, though so far, he has only returned from Moscow with a portrait of Trump and Russian narratives about “one people.”

Exclusively for Espreso

About the author. Kateryna Roshuk, Ukrainian political scientist and media manager.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.