Putin's Beijing trip: wins and losses

1. We can say with 100% certainty that China promised Putin not to change trade rules over the next few months. In other words, Beijing will not complicate financial and logistical chains. At the same time, just as before, Beijing will not sell weapons to Russia. It is worth noting that trade rules with Ukraine also remain unchanged (China is our largest trading partner and a key supplier of drones).

2. With a high degree of probability, China promised Russia some time to buy part of the oil that was supposed to go to India. In other words, Moscow’s oil revenue drop will be not 30%, but 10–15%. However, there are two important nuances:

• China is becoming Russia’s buyer of last resort and can demand maximum discounts, which Moscow truly fears;
• Until now, China, as an oil-dependent country, has always carefully diversified and never allowed any seller to gain a privileged position. Therefore, it is likely that this “generosity” will be temporary, or Russia will have to make concessions in oil production and even transportation. In any case, this is a trap for Russia.

3. The decision by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on the first step toward creating a military framework within the organization went almost unnoticed. The Universal Center for Countering Challenges and Threats of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was established. No, this is not a military-political alliance, and certainly not a second NATO. But it is a test balloon in that direction. Importantly, this framework fully encroaches on the territory and capabilities of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. This is a significant step not only toward the potential creation of a military alliance in the medium term but already now serves as a blow to Russia and its ambitions in Central Asia.

4. Judging by Ushakov’s statements, Russia tried to propose to China the creation of Chinese-Russian-American joint ventures for work on the Arctic shelf and logistics along the Northern Sea Route. Being a mediator in China-United States negotiations is the Kremlin’s golden dream. However, this idea seems not to have gained support, and logically, it is difficult to envision for now.

5. Finally, I want to highlight a crucial fact: on September 3, 2025, with a parade in Beijing, China loudly declared: “I am the second pole of the world, and I will act accordingly.” Neither Washington nor Europe was prepared for this logical statement. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pretending that nothing is happening.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.