Putin snubs Trump. Column by Vitaly Portnikov

Peskov claimed that Putin is also interested in a ceasefire. But, as usual, there are “nuances” and “questions” that remain unanswered. Among them, Peskov mentioned what he called lack of control over Ukraine's leadership — as if we’re not talking about a sovereign state, but some province that should be run from Washington. He also brought up the alleged lack of control over so-called nationalist formations by Ukraine’s government, a talking point Putin has been repeating in recent weeks when discussing the relationship between Ukraine’s leadership and its Armed Forces.

Peskov also listed Ukraine’s ongoing militarization as one of the unresolved issues. As we know, Putin has already said that for Russia to even consider a temporary ceasefire, military aid to Kyiv must stop, along with Ukraine’s mobilization efforts.

So once again, the Kremlin has made it clear: it doesn’t support the U.S. president’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Instead, Russia keeps setting conditions that go far beyond a short pause in fighting — they essentially aim to force Ukraine into surrender. Because we all understand what a ceasefire looks like when one side is still rearming and mobilizing troops.

"Let’s not forget: even Russia’s current military draft is unprecedented in scale compared to previous years. Yet at the same time, Ukraine is being told it can’t accept military aid or continue its own mobilization."

From Russia’s point of view, occupying Ukraine is just a matter of time. A ceasefire simply becomes a break to prepare for that occupation and eventual surrender.

And that is definitely not what the U.S. president is demanding from Putin. Let’s not pretend Vladimir Putin doesn’t understand that. He absolutely does. But his strategy is to drag out talks with the American president, hoping that over time, Western military aid to Ukraine will run out. The last aid package, passed by the previous administration, will eventually be exhausted. If no new support follows, the Russian army could see a clearer path to advance against Ukrainian positions.

The key question now is: how long will Donald Trump tolerate Putin’s stalling — and does he understand how this tactic is affecting his own reputation?

After meeting with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Trump once again voiced frustration with Putin’s stance on the ceasefire and said they would talk soon. But a week has passed, and still no real conversation has taken place between the two presidents.

"Moreover, there’s talk now that the U.S. President is being advised by his team not to speak with the Russian leader unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian front."

Peskov’s comments once again show that the Kremlin isn’t considering that option unless the U.S. and other Western countries offer serious concessions. After all, military aid to Ukraine isn’t just an American issue — it’s a European one too. And European governments clearly won’t support a ceasefire that only sets the stage for a renewed Russian offensive and further occupation of Ukrainian territory.

European leaders are also saying that any easing of sanctions on Russia is only possible if Russian troops withdraw from the Ukrainian land they’ve occupied. That’s obviously not an option Putin or Russia’s political and military leadership is ready to accept.

So what happens next? At some point, U.S. leaders will have to decide how to deal with the Russian leadership in a situation where Putin keeps ignoring Trump’s proposals and drags out talks without changing his position.

"Of course, one thing that could shift Putin’s stance is oil prices — which have been dropping fast ever since the U.S. President raised tariffs on countries trading with America."

But at the same time, we can’t forget that this shift in tariffs is happening amid not just Russian problems, but global ones. The falling oil prices aren’t just about putting pressure on Russia — they’re part of a larger crisis unfolding in the global economy.

And the Russians might also be waiting to see how this economic crisis affects Ukraine’s support. Because let’s be honest — thanks to Trump’s policies, Ukraine’s main backers, the U.S. and Europe, may now be facing the worst economic downturn in recent memory.

And in the middle of this economic storm, they’ll have to make some hard choices about whether to keep funding Ukraine in its war with Russia.

And as always in a war of attrition, what really matters is who runs out of steam first. Will Russia crack under the pressure of low oil prices and be forced to change course? Or will the U.S. and EU have to slash support for Ukraine to redirect funds toward saving their own economies and helping their own people in a crisis? Only after that becomes clear will we know what path Putin takes in his standoff with Donald Trump.

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About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, National Shevchenko Prize laureate.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.