Putin prepares to annex Transnistria

Having verified information from my own sources, Moldova has confirmed that such a congress will indeed take place. It is anticipated that as a result, on February 29, an appeal will be made to Putin in the Kremlin.

Currently, various scenarios are being discussed. The consultations between Moldovan pro-Russian politicians Shor and Dodon in Moscow are linked to coordinating the actions of Kremlin agents in Moldova.

The Kremlin, preparing for a comeback in Moldova, will leverage Transnistria as a lever to influence Moldova.

Currently, it doesn't appear that aggression towards Moldova is being planned.

It is anticipated that the maximum level of escalation would be a "new Kaliningrad region" scenario, which doesn't border the Russian Federation. This would be a pessimistic scenario.

The realistic scenario involves the Congress appealing for annexation to Russia, but with a vague message from the Kremlin regarding comprehensive support for the population of Transnistria, without announcing a decision on annexation. This would allow for the annexation of Transnistria at any moment and use it as a threat to Chisinau to achieve the desired landscape for a comeback through elections.

About the author. Ruslan Rokhov, Member of the Board of the Center for Constitutional Modeling.

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